~marginalrevolution | Bookmarks (72)

“Beginning as early as 2025, we will begin testing more enhanced features like dynamic pricing and daypart offerings, along with AI-enabled menu changes and suggestive selling,” he said. “As we continue to show the benefit of this technology in our company-operated restaurants, franchisee interest in digital menu boards should increase, further supporting sales and profit […] The post Dynamic surge pricing for Wendy’s appeared...

Unemployment is low and inflation is falling, but consumer sentiment remains depressed. This has confounded economists, who historically rely on these two variables to gauge how consumers feel about the economy. We propose that borrowing costs, which have grown at rates they had not reached in decades, do much to explain this gap. The cost […] The post Do high interest rates get people...

Egypt has agreed to a $35bn deal with the United Arab Emirates to develop the town of Ras el-Hekma town on its northwestern coast, Egyptian Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly announced on Friday after weeks of speculations. Madbouly said at a news conference, which was attended by Egyptian and Emirati officials, that Egypt will receive an advance amount of $15bn […] The post Why don’t nations buy and sell...

That is the topic of my latest Bloomberg column: The worldwide dominance of US equities is increasingly obvious. Of the top 10 components of the MSCI global stocks index — which itself now consists of about 70% US stocks — eight are US technology companies. The S&P 500 has breached the 5,000 level. On most days, Apple or Microsoft alone is […] The post U.S. equity market dominance appeared first...

That is the topic of my latest Bloomberg column, here is one bit: California’s highest income tax rate is 13.3%. That is in addition to a top federal tax rate of 37%. California also has a state sales tax rate of 7.25%, and many localities impose a smaller sales tax. So if a wealthy person earns and […] The post The California tax burden is driving...

Using a quantitative heterogeneous-agent model calibrated to Korea, we find that fertility would be 28% higher in the absence of the status externality and that childlessness in the poorest quintile would fall from five to less than one percent. We then explore the effects of various government policies. A pro-natal transfer or an education tax […] The post How much does status competition lower...

That is the topic of my Bloomberg column.  Maybe they should try it for federalism/discovery purposes, but overall I am skeptical.  Here is one excerpt: The history of “enterprise zones,” which are specially designated areas (usually urban) with lower taxes and fewer regulations, offers a cautionary tale. Enterprise zones have at best mixed results in revitalizing declining areas. Could […] The post Might a Georgist land tax help...

Maybe so: Milei’s austerity is biting hard in La Rioja, an olive and wine region home to 384,000 people — out of a population of 46mn — where intense heat pushes many businesses to take a siesta from 1 to 6pm. Almost 75 per cent of the province’s budget comes from redistributed taxes collected by […] The post Will the Argentina province of La...

From a new and important paper by Xiwen Bai, Jesús Fernández-Villaverde, Yiliang Li, and Francesco Zanetti: Our analysis shows that supply chain disruptions generate stagflation, accompanied by an increase in spare capacity for producers. This higher spare capacity curtails the supply of goods to retailers and results in a surge in prices, leading to a […] The post One reason why the disinflation proved...

It is very long, very detailed, and very good.  Interesting throughout!  Excerpt: Dealing with the third conversation is harder. There is place where I feel Tyler is misinterpreting a few statements, in ways I find extremely frustrating and that I do not see him do in other contexts, and I pause to set the record […] The post Zvi Mowshowitz covers my podcast with...

Here is the link, I am reviewing a bad book on the Clinton administration (A Fabulous Failure, by Lichtenstein and Stern).  Here is one excerpt: Clinton-era welfare reform is another area where many commentators go astray, and Lichtenstein and Stein are no exception. The Clinton pronouncement “I have a plan to end welfare as we […] The post My TLS essay on the Clinton...

100 pp. or so, comprehensive, by Matthias Doepkea, Anne Hannusch, Fabian Kindermannd, and Michèle Tertilt. Via Bruce Lambert. The post Economics of fertility chapter appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsIn reply to Ai. Student loans, rather explicitly, have been ... by SureIn reply to Sure. Since having more children is correlated ... by AiIn reply to SpeculativeDiction. The government has a ... by...

That is my podcast with Cardiff Garcia, now on-line and with transcript too.  Cardiff proposed a novel approach: Who is the Magic Johnson of economics? Who was the Adam Smith of basketball? On this fun and oddball episode of The New Bazaar, Cardiff speaks with Tyler Cowen, economist and author of GOAT: Who is the […] The post If econs could hoop — The...

We discussed how the insights of Hayek, Keynes, Smith, and other great economists help us make sense of AI, growth, risk, human nature, anarchy, central planning, and much more. Dwarkesh is one of the very best interviewers around, here are the links.  If Twitter is blocked to you, here is the transcript, here is Spotify, […] The post My new podcast with Dwarkesh Patel...

No, but they did get him some votes there: We study the economic and political consequences of the 2018-2019 trade war between the United States, China and other US trade partners at the detailed geographic level, exploiting measures of local exposure to US import tariffs, foreign retaliatory tariffs, and US compensation programs. The trade-war has […] The post Did the Trump tariffs help the...

…we can expect to see in the 2020s that we did not see in the 2010s: the possibility of ubiquitous participation by AIs. AIs are willing to work for less than $1 per hour, and have the knowledge of an encyclopedia – and if that’s not enough, they can even be integrated with real-time web search […] The post Vitalik on AI and crypto appeared...

Very few people are looking closely at the illegal sand system or calling for changes, however, because sand is a mundane resource. Yet sand mining is the world’s largest extraction industry because sand is a main ingredient in concrete, and the global construction industry has been soaring for decades. Every year the world uses up […] The post The economics of illicit sand markets...

Forthcoming in ReStud, I haven’t had the chance to read it yet: To analyze climate change mitigation strategies, economists rely on simplified climate models — so-called climate emulators — that provide a realistic quantitative link between CO2 emissions and global warming at low computational costs. In this paper, we propose a generic and transparent calibration […] The post An important new paper on the...

That is the focus of my latest Bloomberg column, 2x the normal length.  I cannot cover all the points, but here is one excerpt: The larger theme is becoming evident: AI will radically disrupt power relations in society. AI may severely limit, for instance, the status and earnings of the so-called “wordcel” class. It will […] The post What are the actual dangers of...

Have you ever wondered why empty storefronts in major cities stay empty for so long?  There is a new and still in the works paper by Daniel Stackman and Erica Moszkowski, and it provides valuable information about one piece of the puzzle.  Here is the abstract: We document the rise of storefront vacancies in prime […] The post The Contractual Origins of High-Rent Urban...

Not anytime soon, as I argue in my Bloomberg column, here is one of the arguments: The desire to diversify is another limiting force. Once you have a considerable sum of money, it makes sense to spread your assets widely. Gates, for example, sold a good deal of Microsoft stock early on, presumably with diversification […] The post When will the world have its...

I won’t double indent, but this is not by me, though I agree with it: “I agree with your read re Argentina’s history of fiscal stability. From this paper (unclear if the data is accurate), here is Argentina’s deficit from 1960 to 2016 or so: [See Figure 3 here] Notice 2003-2009 is the only time […] The post Quick tour of Argentina’s fiscal deficit...

I give him a 30-40% chance, which is perhaps generous because I am rooting for him.  Bryan Caplan, who is more optimistic, offers some analysis and estimates that Milei needs to close a fiscal gap of about five percent of gdp. I have two major worries.  First, if Milei approaches fiscal success, the opposing parties […] The post Will Milei succeed in Argentina? appeared...