~marginalrevolution | Bookmarks (77)

That is the new Daron Acemoglu paper, and he is skeptical about its overall economic effects.  Here is part of the abstract: Using existing estimates on exposure to AI and productivity improvements at the task level, these macroeconomic effects appear nontrivial but modest—no more than a 0.71% increase in total factor productivity over 10 years. […] The post “The Simple Macroeconomics of AI” appeared...

That is the subject of my latest Bloomberg column.  Here is one excerpt: The Austrian economist Ludwig von Mises is having a moment, especially in Latin America. Argentine President Javier Milei admires Mises, and he has adopted some Misesian ideas, such as the notion that “the middle of the road leads to socialism.” Milei used to be an academic […] The post The Ludwig von Mises comeback appeared...

An excellent piece, here is one excerpt I enjoyed in particular: Cowen reads the John Maynard Keynes of The General Theory “as writing about an economy where uncertainty was much higher than usual, investment was highly unstable, fiscal policy was unable to fill in the gap, there was a risk or even reality of a downward spiral […] The post Robert Whaples reviews *GOAT* appeared first...

Congratulations!  Here is the AEA announcement and summary of his work. The post Philipp Strack wins the J.B. Clark award appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsTalking of prize winners Peter Higgs has died. by deariemeIn reply to rayward. Ah Bonn, the most rigorous math ... by DaveIn reply to dearieme. The only correct way of spell it is ... by JamalIn reply to...

Jon Hartley is one I know, here is the abstract: This study pushes our understanding of research reliability by reproducing and replicating claims from 110 papers in leading economic and political science journals. The analysis involves computational reproducibility checks and robustness assessments. It reveals several patterns. First, we uncover a high rate of fully computationally […] The post 350+ coauthors study reproducibility in economics...

One MR reader, Luca Piron, writes to me:  I found myself puzzled by a thought you expressed during your interview with Professor Haidt. In particular, from my understanding you suggested that in the near future AI will be able to sum up the content a user may want to see into a digest, so that they can […] The post A simple model of AI and...

The mayor of an Italian island is attempting to solve an animal overpopulation problem with an unusual offer: free goats for anyone who can catch them. Riccardo Gullo, the mayor of Alicudi, in Sicily’s Aeolian archipelago, introduced an “adopt-a-goat” program when the small island’s wild goat population grew to six times the human population of […] The post Lockean homesteading for goats, bonus added...

From Anton Korinek here is a recent paper: Generative AI, in particular large language models (LLMs) such as ChatGPT, has the potential to revolutionize research. I describe dozens of use cases along six domains in which LLMs are starting to become useful as both research assistants and tutors: ideation and feedback, writing, background research, data […] The post Generative AI for economists appeared first...

The LLMs basically win: This paper presents a novel study on harnessing Large Language Models’ (LLMs) outstanding knowledge and reasoning abilities for explainable financial time series forecasting. The application of machine learning models to financial time series comes with several challenges, including the difficulty in cross-sequence reasoning and inference, the hurdle of incorporating multi-modal signals […] The post LLMs vs. ARMA-GARCH appeared first on...

That is the topic of my latest Bloomberg column.  I cover several points, here is one of them, based on the economic idea of intertemporal substitution: In this sense, Canada is ahead of much of the rest of the world in seeing the importance of these factors and turning it into actionable policy. It is […] The post Why aren’t Canada and other Anglo...

That is the topic of my latest Bloomberg column.  Here is one excerpt: First, as a matter of practice, if there is a true AI boom, or the advent of artificial general intelligence (AGI), the demand for capital expenditures (capex) will be extremely high. Second, as a matter of theory, the productivity of capital is […] The post Will strong AI raise or lower...

There are pronounced racial, ethnic, and gender gaps in income in the U.S. We investigate whether these correspond with differences in competitiveness, risk tolerance, and confidence relative to performance in a large, stratified sample of the U.S. prime-age population. We find substantial differences in all three traits across Black, Hispanic, and White males and females. […] The post Disparities in psychological traits and incomes...

Here is a good Substack essay by Nicolas Cachanosky, excerpt: Inflation expectations depend on what is expected to happen to the budget in the months to come. It is natural, then, to ask whether the observed surpluses are sustainable in the months ahead. Answering this question requires looking at two things. First, how was the fiscal […] The post How credible is the Milei plan?...

On the road, I haven’t had a chance to read this paper yet, but I pass it along as a matter of interest: Theory predicts that global economic growth will stagnate and even come to an end due to slower and eventually negative growth in population. It has been claimed, however, that Artificial Intelligence (AI) […] The post Is an Economic Growth Explosion Imminent?...

Here is my blurb for the book: “Bryan Caplan is a pioneer in the use of graphic novels to expound economic concepts. His new book Build, Baby, Build is thus a landmark in economic education, how to present economic ideas, and the integration of economic analysis and graphic visuals. If you want to learn the economics, ethics, […] The post *Build, Baby, Build*, by Bryan Caplan...

By Anton Korinek and Donghyun Suh, in a new NBER working paper: We analyze how output and wages behave under different scenarios for technological progress that may culminate in Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), defined as the ability of AI systems to perform all tasks that humans can perform. We assume that human work can be […] The post Scenarios for the Transition to AGI...

He is a podcaster who mainly does transcripts.  Our discussion was largely but by no means entirely about climate change, here is one excerpt: Sam: And India also is building huge amounts of new renewable and other electricity generating capacity. They’re building electric rail networks. They seem to be hitting their stride in a way that […] The post My interview with Sam Matey appeared...

The full paper title is “Has Intergenerational Progress Stalled? Income Growth Over Five Generations of Americans,” by Kevin Corrinth and Jeff Larrimore.  Here is the abstract: We find that each of the past four generations of Americans was better off than the previous one, using a post-tax, post-transfer income measure constructed annually from 1963-2022 based […] The post New results on intergenerational progress appeared...

Thomas is at the Templeton Foundation, here is the link (with transcript), here is one bit: Tom: …So, I know that you’re a voracious reader, you’re immensely curious. Going back to your childhood, what were some of your favorite books during some of those formative years? Tyler: Well, when I was very small, my favorite books […] The post My podcast with Thomas Burnett appeared...

Here is an outline of part of my lecture.  I presented “free trade” (NB: it wasn’t totally free), the classical gold standard, and some modicum of free immigration (not everywhere) as three successful and mostly stable pillars of 19th century classical liberal achievement.  Of course that was for limited parts of Western Europe and North […] The post Some triumphs of 19th century liberalism...

It’s really, right now, I think the profession is very inward-looking. It’s rewarding people who do things that are seen as hard. It’s really blurring the lines between theory and empirics was structural in a way that it is an experiment that I personally don’t think has worked out very well. And so, I think […] The post Steve Levitt on the future of...

The shock therapy administered by Milei and his economy czar Luis Caputo right after the Dec. 10 inauguration is showing results. In a severely recessionary context, inflation is slowing down (February prices rose 13.2% in monthly terms compared with 25.5% in December) while foreign reserves grew by more than $7 billion despite debt repayments. Deposits on local […] The post Milei update appeared first on Marginal...

Contrary to some recent claims, the Canadian economy is not falling apart, and now I have a Bloomberg column on that point.  Excerpt: A chorus of doomsayers is pointing out that by some measures, Canadian per-capita GDP is in decline. While there is genuine room for concern, the bad news is much overstated. Canada has not altered […] The post The Canadian economy is a worthwhile...

I agree with the anonymous email, and I’ve written about customers going off-grid or doing microgrids because I think customers will find them more appealing than existing utilities. It seems obvious that a lot of data centers will directly source their power. It’s not insurmountable now that there is a robust industry of independent power […] The post Austin Vernon on utilities (from my...