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One of the most consequential statistic passed by without much noise. India's total fertility rate fell below population replacement rate to 2.0, with many states far below that level, thanks to effective campaigns around family planning & contraception. https://t.co/hN65hiFEsc pic.twitter.com/fDSIMl3j5F — Arvind Ravikumar (@arvindpawan1) May 19, 2022 Via Noah Smith. The post Baby bust in India? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsIn reply...

1. A curanto! 2. Does altruism predict mating success in humans? 3. “Across these sites, the study found a total of 1,248 arachnid species currently or previously for sale.” (NYT) 4. Patrick McKenzie on stablecoins. 5. Podcast with Josh Barro on Talent. 6.What is the best way to find a talented four-year-old? (NYT) 7. Apollo […] The post Saturday assorted links appeared first on...

Max Tabarrok has an interesting new idea for governance, Interland: Interland takes the intersection of the law codes of a large group of nations. This will produce a minimal reasonable set of laws which is highly resistant to lobbying and growth. Anyone who wants to add a new agricultural subsidy, building height limit, or immigration […] The post Interland: A New Type of Government...

That is the topic of my latest Bloomberg column, here is one bit: Recently an Andy Warhol painting sold at auction for $195 million, the highest price ever for a 20th century artwork. A dance hall-themed painting by Ernie Barnes went for $15.3 million, 76 times the original estimate. The Macklowe collection sold at Sotheby’s for $246.1 million, the most ever […] The post Should art prices be booming? appeared...

Expect some temporary issues as we undergo scheduled maintenance. Addendum: All done! Do see Elon’s news in the comments. The post Scheduled Maintenance appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsIn reply to M. How could I ever beat your flawless encomium? by KeithIn reply to M. Her formidable intellect makes my blood leave ... by KeithIn reply to Keith. So smart her intimidating smartness...

His close colleague, fellow senator Iván Cepeda, says Petro’s ideas transcend traditional left-right boundaries. “He has been inspired by many sources . . . he has a solid Marxist foundation but has also read a lot of French post-structuralism and other political traditions. He is also a serious economist . . . who has read thinkers like Naomi Klein and is in dialogue […] The post Colombian sentences to ponder appeared first...

1. The Straussian take. 2. 715 songs with frisson. 3. A podcast on how finance is portrayed in the arts and culture. 4. Matt Levine on the SEC and issues of delegation. 5. Help launch meta-science JPal. 6. My chat with James Pethokoukis. The post Friday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsIn reply to XVO. The FDA is not a constraint...

Bryan Caplan reminds us that misinformation wouldn’t work well if people weren’t so irrational. The [standard misinformation] story focuses exclusively on the flaws of speakers, without acknowledging the flaws of the listeners. Misinformation won’t work unless the listeners are themselves naive, dogmatic, emotional, or otherwise intellectually defective. In economic jargon, the problem is that the story mistakes […] The post The Demand and Supply of Misinformation...

Consistent with beauty-blind admissions, alumni’s beauty is uncorrelated with the rank of the school they attended in China. In the US, White men who attended high-ranked schools are better looking, especially attendees of private schools. A one percentage point increase in beauty rank corresponds to a half-point increase in the school rank. Here is more, via […] The post Sentences to ponder model this appeared...

Tether a few times has been bouncing well below a dollar in value, even though it is supposed to be backed by plenty of high-quality assets. I am reminded of some of my monetary theory writings with Kroszner in the late 1980s.  He and I wrote one essay, later published in our book, on how […] The post Problems with indirect convertibility appeared first...

That is the topic of my latest Bloomberg column, you ought to be able to guess most of my arguments.  Here is the very end: I am not arguing for passivity in the face of danger. It is distressing that US policymakers do not seem interested in spending big for pandemic preparedness. America needs a […] The post Let’s eliminate the Covid test entry...

1. Is the YIMBYest city in America in Maine? 2. Dump on Thomas Friedman all you want, he remains grossly underrated these days (NYT). 3. Patrick Collison on how to read and deal with books. 4. Monkeypox starting on Metaculus. 5. With in-house judges, the SEC wins about 90% of the time (WSJ).  It’s about […] The post Thursday assorted links appeared first on...

The crypto market is up! The crypto market is down! The roller coaster can be fearfully thrilling but as thoughtful academics and people interested in ideas let’s look away from the daily ups and downs and focus on the big picture. What is crypto? What is cryptoeconomics? Tyler and I have written a new chapter […] The post Cryptoeconomics! appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION....

This is Daniel Gross my co-author on Talent and the venture capitalist, to be clear.  And here is the audio and transcript.  Of course we focus on talent and also: They also explore the question of why so many high achievers love Diet Coke, why you should ask candidates if they have any good conspiracy […] The post My Conversation with the excellent Daniel...

A study of Russian publications in the 1990s found that some 39 percent of all nonfiction published in Russia in that decade had something to do with the occult. That is from the really quite interesting The Russian Cosmists: The Esoteric Futurism of Nikolai Fedorov and His Followers, by George M. Young.  And for more […] The post Russia fact of the day appeared...

1. New non-profit for geothermal energy. 2. New Allison Schrager podcast, first episode with Joel Mokyr. 3. Who owns the publicity rights to Einstein? 4. Yann LeCun on AI risks.  And why (some) octopus mothers self-mutilate and kill themselves. 5. “The subscribers presumably think they’re talking directly to the woman in the videos, and it […] The post Wednesday assorted links appeared first on...

What explains record U.S. house price growth since late 2019? We show that the shift to remote work explains over one half of the 23.8 percent national house price increase over this period. Using variation in remote work exposure across U.S. metropolitan areas we estimate that an additional percentage point of remote work causes a […] The post Remote work and home prices appeared...

Many people have stopped keeping track of where Covid is headed, if only because it is such a stressful and unpleasant topic.  To be clear, under current circumstances I favor complete “Covid laissez-faire,” though with subsidies for new and better vaccines.  Overall, things are not so peachy keen (NYT): The central problem is that the […] The post The new Covid equilibrium appeared first...

With Daniel Gross as well, here it is. The post Podcast with the excellent Patrick O’Shaughnessy appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsI didn’t enjoy this one too much. The host seemed to want to ... by SkepticDaniel Gross, please use a professional microphone. You're ... by Jo YauIn reply to Hugo Flossin. What does? by Flugo HossinAt the end of the interview Tyler...

1. How long-term space missions change the brain. 2. Innovation in NYC subway crimes (New Yorker). 3. “Right to repair” doesn’t have to work out well. 4. “I find that 501(c)(4)s do not have significant effects on [Congressional] candidate vote share when accounting for the spending of candidates, parties, PACs, and Super PACs.” 5. The […] The post Tuesday assorted links appeared first on...

The mismanagement of the metro system in the nation’s capitol is astounding. WashPost: Metro’s train delays are projected to worsen as the agency abruptly yanks from service more than 70 operators who have been working without undergoing a mandatory retraining process for at least a year, officials announced Sunday. The agency pledged corrective action in […] The post The State of Public Transit in...

Here is the episode page (includes transcript): https://www.buzzsprout.com/126848/10628363-tyler-cowen-on-talent Here is the Youtube link. The post My *Talent* podcast with the excellent David Wright appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsIn reply to John Mansfield. -a lotta original ideas on a ... by Dr. joe biden junios-alsatian, ph.ddroopy earlobes, common amongst the edmund burke, dr johnson set by nonacademicwith a curious, rectangular, up and adam,...

That is the topic of my latest Bloomberg column, also picked by the WaPo.  Excerpts: “What are the open tabs in your browser right now?” …First, the question measures what a person does with his or her spare time as well as work time. If you leave a browser tab open, it probably has some […] The post What is the best interview question...

You will find it here. The post The excellent Matt Clifford does a *Talent* podcast with Daniel Gross and me appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsI receive email notifications of each new post on MR, and I ... by mkt42Just once I'd like to see you have a recommendation from ... by MyroneRelated StoriesSome blurbs for *Talent*, with Daniel GrossInfant Formula, Price Controls,...

The EU is preparing to loosen its environmental regulations as it seeks to replace Russian fossil fuels with renewable energy and imported hydrogen power. Companies in the bloc would be allowed to build wind and solar projects without the need for an environmental impact assessment, according to draft proposals obtained by the Financial Times that […] The post Ask and they shall deliver appeared...

1. New languages for Google Translate. 2. Travel notes from Ukraine. 3. Eric Topol on the current state of the virus. 4. A guy on YouTube mimicking John Lennon, with Yoko and George Harrison, singing Paul McCartney solo songs.  And now here is “John Lennon” doing “Band on the Run” album. 5. David Boaz honors […] The post Monday assorted links appeared first on...

I’ve been reluctant to write about the shortage of infant formula simply because it’s so tiring to say the same thing over and over again. Obviously, this is a classic case where the FDA should allow imports of any food or baby formula approved by a stringent authority. (Here’s the US Customs and Border Patrol […] The post Infant Formula, Price Controls, and the...

Russia has stopped publishing detailed monthly trade statistics. But figures from its trading partners can be used to work out what is going on. They suggest that, as imports slide and exports hold up, Russia is running a record trade surplus. On May 9th China reported that its goods exports to Russia fell by over […] The post Russia fact of the day appeared...

Here is a rather underwhelming list of such purchases in recent times.  West Germany buys three islands from the Netherlands in 1963?  Pakistan buys Gwadar from Muscat and Oman in 1958.  America buys the Danish West Indies in 1916.  In 1947, though the Soviet Union bought part of Lapland in Finland to enable a hydroelectric […] The post Why don’t nations buy more territories...

Some wise words on ESG and innovation from the excellent Bart Madden: Excessive focus on looking good in the short term via ESG metrics can be at cross-purposes with a long-term planning horizon keyed to innovation. A sizable portion of a firm’s major innovations may not move the needle much as to ESG metrics but […] The post ESG Versus Innovation appeared first on...

1. Sheikh Khalifa of UAE passes away (NYT). 2. George H. Smith has passed away. 3. The Economist on India’s economy, a good feature story. 4. Regulatory obstacles to flying electric vehicles (WSJ). 5. Is current comedy favoring the right wing? 6. More on the infant formula crisis. 7. The 666 greatest novels of all […] The post Sunday assorted links appeared first on...

I mean in private conversation, not in public discourse, and this is not to their faces but rather behind their back.  And with at least a modest amount of meanness, I am not talking about criticizing their ideas.  Here are some reasons not to criticize other people: 1. “Complain less” is one of the very […] The post How much should you criticize other...

We have to be more willing to disrupt current animal habitats when building wind or hydroelectric power. That means, to put it bluntly, that we have to be more willing to kill animals. Erecting wind turbines, for instance, often leads to the death of some number of birds. To favor more wind turbines is not […] The post I favor bird consequentialism appeared first...

We now know who is rich in America. And it’s not who you might have guessed. A groundbreaking 2019 study by four economists, “Capitalists in the Twenty-First Century,” analyzed de-identified data of the complete universe of American taxpayers to determine who dominated the top 0.1 percent of earners. The study didn’t tell us about the […] The post Who is rich in America? appeared...

Earlier in the pandemic, you might have had various theories about who was most likely to infect you, who was most likely not to be vaccinated/boosted, or who was most likely to have been going around without proper mask precautions.  Perhaps you went to some greater lengths, either large or small, to avoid those people […] The post Covid and reverse discrimination appeared first...

My questions are: What do you actually do? Are you always stuck inside? What did you do when you were a child and couldn’t drive? Why do you have these sorts of strange regulations? Are your officials so incompetent? Is this due to lobbying from car or oil companies? I don’t get it. Why is […] The post Slovakian Asks Good Questions About American...

1. Thomas Schelling 1963-64 syllabus and final exam. 2. On Srinivasan and sex. 3. Transitioning to post-quantum cryptography? 4. Do insects have culture? 5. There are fewer Karens. 6. “The FDA won’t allow European formulas to be sold here because of inane labeling concerns…” 7. “New funding effort will deploy a corps of scientist ‘scouts’ […] The post Saturday assorted links appeared first on...

1. Paul Strathern, The Florentines: From Dante to Galileo.  It is not just Dante and Galileo, there is also Boccaccio, Petrarch, Machiavelli, Giotto, Botticelli, Leonardo, Fra Filippo Lippi, Michelangelo, Ghiberti, Brunelleschi, and many more, all from one small region of Italy.  This book doesn’t answer how that all happened, but it is perhaps the best […] The post What I’ve been reading appeared first...

I will be doing a Conversation with him so what should I ask?  He is a carpet cleaner.  And there is this: “So, how many languages do you speak?” “Oh, goodness,” Vaughn says. “Eight, fluently.” “Eight?” Kelly marvels. “Eight,” Vaughn confirms. English, Spanish, Bulgarian, Czech, Portuguese, Romanian, Russian and Slovak. “But if you go by […] The post What should I ask Vaughn Smith?...

1. Umbrex presents Tyler Cowen on Talent. 2. Devon Zuegel podcast with Andy Matuschak on…group message etiquette – peripheral vision – homegrown software. 3. The guys behind the Turkish drones (New Yorker). 4. Nintil review of Talent. 5. Catherine Rampell on the inflation conspiracy theory.  #TheGreatForgetting 6. Nadia on EA and idea machines. 7. Help […] The post Friday assorted links appeared first on...

Discrimination exists but rather than being systemic Campbell and Brauer argue it’s due to a small number of prejudiced individuals. Discrimination has persisted in our society despite steady improvements in explicit attitudes toward marginalized social groups. The most common explanation for this apparent paradox is that due to implicit biases, most individuals behave in slightly […] The post Systemic Bias versus Concentrated Bias appeared...

The economic crisis is a result of mismanagement by the Rajapaksa administration (and its predecessors) as well as Sri Lanka’s vulnerability to external shocks. The pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have had a devastating impact. The Rajapaksas pursued populist economic policies — including unaffordable fuel and food subsidies and printing money to finance them […] The post Is Sri Lanka becoming a failed...

With Daniel Gross, here is a (very much) shortened bit from Talent: How to Identify Energizers, Creators, and Winners Around the World, published at a16z, excerpt from the chapter on when to use talent scouts: It is worth thinking about why the scouting model works in this context [finding supermodels]. First, the relevant talent could […] The post How to make talent scouts work...

1. Megyn Kelly interviews me, after about half an hour we get to Talent; the earlier inflation material will not be new to MR readers. 2. Rene Saenz: “What Cowenism Is,” a short essay. 3. Switzerland pondering whether Liechenstein is really very different, or not. 4. Kevin Kelly on Vanishing Asia. 5. New Vitalik/Glen paper, […] The post Thursday assorted links appeared first on...

“Talent” is what happens when two brilliant and profoundly iconoclastic minds apply their imagination to one of the hardest of all business problems: the search for good people. I loved it.” –Malcolm Gladwell “Talent is everything―whether in investing and building startups, or in other creative endeavors. Between product, market, and people, I’ve always bet on the last one as […] The post Some blurbs for *Talent*, with Daniel...

Saudi Aramco has overtaken Apple as the world’s most valuable company after higher oil prices pushed shares of the world’s biggest crude exporter to record levels while a broader tech stock sell-off weighed on the iPhone maker. The Saudi Arabian oil company’s market capitalisation on Wednesday was $2.426tn, exceeding Apple’s $2.415tn by just over $10bn. […] The post Saudi fact of the day appeared...

Who are the most underrated talents in AI and machine learning? Think technical, and think builders. More Midjourney, Gwern, and 15.ai. Comments are open, thanks in advance! The post The most underrated talent in AI? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsThe ability to see WHICH layers/components fit together to ... by JonasPieter Abbeel of Robot Brains Podcast by GrangeIn reply to JWatts. > Microsoft has an...

1. “The telltale sign of a successful intellectual life is weirdness – weird in the best possible way.”  Short essay on my approach to things, a good piece I thought. 2. How much did slavery and cotton accelerate U.S. economic growth? 3. Will China build a dam with an army of robots and 3-D printers?  […] The post Wednesday assorted links appeared first on...

Today's piece is also an announcement! I’m launching a new project with @TheAtlantic called “Progress," which pulls together my newsletter, monthly calls with readers on progress and the abundance agenda, and some larger forthcoming projects and events. https://t.co/q1xpHsUNR8 — Derek Thompson (@DKThomp) May 11, 2022   The post The new Derek Thompson project on progress appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsIn reply to...

That of course is only one metric, and it focuses on flows rather than homes as an asset.  It nonetheless puts a number of matters in perspective.  Here it is in words: 1981 was the most unaffordable year for those who need a mortgage, with annual payments consuming a whopping 52% of their income. For […] The post When were U.S. home prices at...