Bookmarks (569)

A further bump in real wages of up to 3.5 per cent is expected this year, alongside an expected 3 per cent jump in real disposable income, according to Russia’s Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting. The unemployment rate, forecast to hit between 7 and 8 per cent in 2022, is at 2.6 per […] The post Russia facts of the day appeared...

1. Two Patrick Collison citations on mentorship. 2. The refrigerator anecdote. 3. Nick Whitaker puts forward AI policy. 4. “The US economy has been expanding for 15 years, only interrupted by 2 months of contraction in early 2020″…and…”The US economy has now been in an expansion for 51 months with annualized real GDP growth of […] The post Friday assorted links appeared first on...

Reuters: To learn how this global industry works, reporters made multiple buys of precursors over the past year. Though a few of the sales proved to be scams, the journalists succeeded in buying 12 chemicals that could be used to make fentanyl, according to independent chemists consulted by Reuters. Most of the goods arrived as […] The post Markets in Everything: Fentanyl Precursors appeared...

That is the topic of my latest Bloomberg column, here is one excerpt: A recent study finds that, of all domestic subsidies, the most effective involve replacing the dirty production of electricity with the cleaner production of electricity. In practice, that means subsidies or tax credits for solar and wind power. Those are more than twice as effective as […] The post Which are the most effective subsidies...

Here is the audio, video, and transcript.  Here is the episode summary: Tyler and Taylor take a walking tour of early history through North America covering the decisions, and ripples of those decisions, that shaped revolution and independence, including why Canada didn’t join the American revolution, why America in turn never conquered Canada, American’s early […] The post My excellent Conversation with Alan Taylor,...

We’re presenting the first AI to solve International Mathematical Olympiad problems at a silver medalist level. It combines AlphaProof, a new breakthrough model for formal reasoning, and AlphaGeometry 2, an improved version of our previous system. Here is further information. From the NYT three days ago “A.I. Can Write Poetry, but It Struggles With Math.”  […] The post From Google DeepMind (it’s happening) appeared...

1. Malaysia to build a large AI and data centre next to Singapore (FT). 2. The Indicator from Planet Money NPR on whether AI might possibly be underrated, I am one of the guests.  And beta website for The Rational Optimist Society. 3. Shruti on why observers of American politics now need to learn about […] The post Thursday assorted links appeared first on...

An excellent post from Maxwell Tabarrok at Maximum Progress: On 75 percent or more of the residential land in most major American cities it is illegal to build anything other than a detached single-family home. 95.8 percent of total residential land area in California is zoned as single-family-only, which is 30 percent of all land in the state. Restrictive […] The post Overturn Euclid v. Ambler appeared first...

Lots of fresh material and debate, they question me, lots of philosophy, here are the links.  And this is a new podcast from Peter and Kasia, Lives Well Lived, further interesting episodes are on the way. The post My podcast with Peter Singer and Kasia de Lazari-Radek appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsIn reply to Area 51. “Top 100 global thinker” There are...

By Anders Humlum and Emilie Vestergaard: We study the adoption of ChatGPT, the icon of Generative AI, using a large-scale survey experiment linked to comprehensive register data in Denmark. Surveying 100,000 workers from 11 exposed occupations, we document that ChatGPT is widespread, but substantial inequalities have emerged. Women are 20 percentage points less likely to […] The post Who uses ChatGPT? appeared first on...

Here is the link. The post Be there or be square! appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsIn reply to Rich Berger. RB, i miss her so. Bought all of her ... by windowpaneIn reply to Tom Meadowcroft. Tyler shouldn't be in this ... by He probably stays off the couchIf the opportunity to prosper is dead in America, where is it ... by...

1. Rationing child care in Canada. 2. Does war reinforce gender stereotypes? 3. HIV vaccine in the works? 4. Price inflation in Argentina is improving. 5. Melissa Dell on deep learning for economists. 6. What should a 30-year, fully scored federal budget look like? The post Wednesday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsIn reply to Mark Pynenburg. Conclusion Canadian prosperity ......

In April I posted, following an excellent piece by Martin Gurri, that 4% of Cuba’s population had recently escaped. The Miami Herald now reports, based on official Cuban data, that 4% was a large underestimate. A stunning 10% of Cuba’s population — more than a million people — left the island between 2022 and 2023, […] The post Cuba Libre! Part 2 appeared first...

The number of unwanted Paris Olympics tickets available for resale has hit more than a quarter of a million, as lack of demand increases concerns just days before Friday’s opening ceremony that many athletes will compete against a backdrop of empty seats. The number of listings rose to 270,465 on Monday, up from about 180,000 a […] The post France faces glut of unwanted Olympics...

As a presidential candidate, Ms. Harris proposed replacing Mr. Trump’s 2017 tax cuts with a monthly refundable tax credit worth up to $500 for people earning less than $100,000. The policy, known as the LIFT the Middle Class Act, was unveiled in 2018 and aimed to address the rising cost of living by providing middle-class and working […] The post Kamala Harris economic record appeared first...

The post One of my favorite Stravinsky pieces appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsAnyone have details on how Tyler listens to music given his ... by mikeInThe716In reply to EdR. Now that's funny ! ... by Jeremy HulumomoIn reply to Dimas. It’s not for everyone. by ApsoIn reply to evbri. Sorry- meant to reply to the post itself. by ApsoYou may also like...

Read about it here, use it here.  Here is some video.  Bravo! The post Introducing Llama 3.1 appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsIn reply to Ai. Upvoted for Love Exposure. by MIn reply to Russell. Boomers can't into VPN? by The Scary Black HundrederIn reply to blue jay. ChatGPT can you please make the ... by rsmIn reply to SpeculativeDiction. If you need...

1. James Scott was working on rivers when he died. 2. Jonathan Swift, microfinance pioneeer. 3. Which messages induce people to favor greater taxation of billionaires? 4. “Our results suggest that further subsidizing health care for elderly homeowners, the majority of older Americans, would increase moral hazard costs without increasing access to needed care.”  In […] The post Tuesday assorted links appeared first on...

This paper provides new evidence on the causal relationship between income and health by studying a randomized experiment in which 1,000 low-income adults in the United States received $1,000 per month for three years, with 2,000 control participants receiving $50 over that same period. The cash transfer resulted in large but short-lived improvements in stress […] The post Does Income Affect Health? (an RCT)...

James J. Walsh, The Thirteenth Greatest of Centuries.  Eccentric, published long ago, not correct, yet full of vitality and insight.  So many of the key pieces of the West already were in place by that time.  So recommended, this one just has been reissued.  How was the Giotto chapel in Padua possible?  Parsival?  This book […] The post What I’ve been reading appeared first...

1. A simple theory of U.S. home prices. 2. Raising welfare in lab rodents. 3. The puzzle as propaganda. 4. Most common South Asian languages in different parts of North America. 5. The surprising rise and staying power of the George Foreman grill. 6. Zachary Brown on whether AI will on net harm farm animals. The post Monday assorted links appeared first on Marginal...

Japan’s growth miracle after World War II is well known but that was Japan’s second miracle. The first was perhaps even more miraculous. At the end of the 19th century, under the Meiji Restoration, Japan transformed itself almost overnight from a peasant economy to an industrial powerhouse. After centuries of resisting economic and social change, […] The post Not Lost In Translation: How Barbarian...

By Eva Vivalt, Elizabeth Rhodes, Alexander W. Bartik, David E. Broockman, Sarah Miller, Here is the link, but I am still sleeping.  Here is the abstract: We study the causal impacts of income on a rich array of employment outcomes, leveraging an experiment in which 1,000 low-income individuals were randomized into receiving $1,000 per month […] The post The employment effects of a guaranteed...

By Anil Ananthaswamy, an excellent book, it will make the end of year best non-fiction list.  It focuses on machine learning and its offshoots, and you can read it for the story even if you don’t followall of the matrix algebra and the calculus.  It is also the best book I know on how science […] The post *Why Machines Learn: The Elegant Math...

The post James Scott, RIP appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsTwitter thread here about a forthcoming work of his about ... by RPMIn reply to w8. Had Scott focused on Soviet absurdities, he ... by JTIn reply to bazza. Self-admitted? Proud? There was no shade ... by JTI was in a workshop with him about 30 years ago and even ... by Peter...

If you would like to discuss recent events… The post Comments are open appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsIn reply to Kieran. Howard U for undergrad and U of ... by Anti-GnosticIn reply to Agammamon. Just because someone is or isn't ... by Mandelbaum, MandelbaumIn reply to Kamala Hashimomotaro. F*cking n*ggers by Shut up niggerIn reply to Kamala Hashimomotaro. Someone’s going to pay...

Via Charmaine Lee. The post Toumani Diabaté, RIP appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsIn reply to DA. Please, go deeper with Toumani. by pogslammerMasterful musician. Rest in peace by Rest in peaceAncient Strings is a great album ... by alaska3636Harp twins have never been featured here. We need more MR ... by Harp TwinsIn reply to Wait. As competitive as Kamala's showing in...

1. Ghana’s architectural heritage. 2. Intelligent people are just as prejudiced, but toward different groups. 3. Mental health contagion effects. 4. GOATs. 5. Cyclic attacks against AI Go players are still a thing. 6. Markets in everything: voice mails you will want to keep. The post Sunday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsIn reply to Me. I took a few economics...

There is a new NBER working paper on this topic by Hui Ren Tan and Tianyi Wang, here is the abstract: We study a far-reaching episode of demagoguery in American history. From the late 1940s to 1950s, anti-communist hysteria led by Senator Joseph McCarthy and others gripped the nation. Hundreds of professionals in Hollywood were […] The post Hollywood evidence on McCarthyism appeared first...

That is the topic of my latest Bloomberg column, here is one excerpt: There is, however, some better news on the animal welfare front. The cause is on the verge of some major victories — and they have been earned through technology rather than rhetoric. The first major development is Ozempic and the other weight-loss […] The post Will technology improve animal welfare? appeared...

1. Yes, the vibes definitely have changed.  And some more vibe shift. 2. Bruce Springsteen is now a billionaire. 3. New Macca bits. 4. How should women dress in the more formal parts of the NYC financial sector? (WSJ) 5. Tips on how to read an econometrics paper. 6. Contrarian results on single motherhood (they […] The post Saturday assorted links appeared first on...

Santa Ana, and also San Salvador — what do you all recommend?  I thank you all in advance for the sage counsel. The post El Salvador bleg appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsWe're going to start hearing that El Salvador never had a ... by Tom T.There is excellent street food on the street by this church: ... by Maxim LottRead Matt Lakeman...

Here is a new paper from W. Scott Frame, Kristopher Gerardi, Erik J. Mayer, Billy Y. Xu, and Lawrence Chengzhi Zhao at the Atlanta Fed: We study the effect of Department of Justice lawsuits in the 2010s against large lenders for alleged fraud in the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) mortgage insurance program. The suits led […] The post Government Litigation Risk and the Decline...

From Frank Fuhrig: Lean protein “emerged as the biggest winner” on supermarket shelves among shoppers who have taken popular new weight-loss drugs, according to a report using consumer surveys. Data analytics firm Grocery Doppio’s “State of Digital Grocery Performance Scorecard: H1 2024” found reduced grocery spending among 97% of consumers who had taken GLP-1 medications — glucagon-like peptide-1 […] The post The economics of GLP-1 appeared first...

1. How much cheating in on-line chess? (WSJ)  And the NYT on fourth-grader Bodhana Sivanandan. 2. “Surprisingly, voters are best served by a pair of polarized and unrepresentative institutions.” 3. Influences on Vance. 4. Karpathy explains, of massive import for development economics too. 5. Ben Sasse resigns. 6. NYT readers pick their best books of […] The post Friday assorted links appeared first on...

In May 2020, I wrote a post titled Every Stock is a Vaccine Stock highlighting that the stock market reaction to good vaccine news indicated that vaccines were worth trillions and that most of this value was external to the vaccine manufacturers, meaning that the vaccine manufacturers were under-incentivized. It’s not surprising that when Moderna […] The post Every Stock is a Vaccine Stock,...

La actividad económica creció 2,3% interanual en mayo de 2024 y 1,3% respecto de abri Here is the tweet, here is the pdf link. The post Argentina fact of the day appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsIn reply to Milei Stones. There is no typo in the original ... by AdamOn balance, I'm really glad that Javier Milei is running ... by Justin...

That is the topic of my latest Bloomberg column.  Here is one summary excerpt: One result: Total tangible corporate investment went up by about 11%. That has been a welcome shot in the arm for an economy that was by some measures suffering from an investment drought. The strong state of the Biden economy may, in […] The post Current state of knowledge on the...

way back in 2022, the best model in the world was text-davinci-003. it was much, much worse than this new model. it cost 100x more. That is from Sam Altman.  And here is a good picture. The post Competition appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsIn reply to SpeculativeDiction. I don't get crypto at all. If ... by Mark BahnerIn reply to Stephen. Is...

1. Job creation through IRA. 2. Longevity progress in mice? 3. Fresh Vitalik. 4. Richard Ngo on open source. 5. Rand Paul on Apple, DOJ, and Alex. 6. Median incomes for various immigrant groups. 7. The Great Forgetting.  And: “People on this website have been talking about how new market rents are at 0% since […] The post Thursday assorted links appeared first on...

The fairly quick on his feet Captain Queeg nonetheless was relieved of his command: Circa 1954. The post That was then, this is now appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsIn reply to The Good Bill. Not only all that, but it’s ... by Mark BahnerIn reply to Patito. Comments on this blog are the primary way ... by MCroIn reply to PaulD. Of...

Luke Strathmann, Brooklyn, to pursue projects related to economics and comedy. Tanvi Reddy, Austin, neural implants. Guillaume Blanc, Manchester/Provence, to study fertility and the demographic transition. Pedro Aldighieri, Northwestern, RiodJ, LLMs and progress in science. Inayi Folarin Iman, London,  “The Equiano Project, a UK-based charity that promotes freedom of speech and open dialogue on matters […] The post Emergent Ventures 35th cohort appeared first...

At the remaining publicly listed department stores, credit cards — rather than retail sales — now generate a surprisingly large chunk of profits. Credit income accounted for about 47 per cent and 66 per cent, respectively, of Nordstrom’s and Kohl’s operating income last year, according to Bank of America Global Research. At Macy’s, the figure […] The post U.S.A. retail fact of the day...

1. The evolving economics of cocaine in Colombia (NYT). 2. New NBER paper, surveys theoretical approach to designing research grants. 3. On the pricing of wines. 4. The Trump plan for AI, very different from the Biden Executive Order.  This could prove very important. 5. How do we radically improve Britain’s state capacity?  Video with […] The post Wednesday assorted links appeared first on...

Clearly it has happened, and it has been accelerated and publicized by the Biden failings and the attempted Trump assassination.  But it was already underway.  If you need a single, unambiguous sign of it, I would cite MSNBC pulling off Morning Joe for a morning, for fear they would say something nasty about Trump. Another […] The post The changes in vibes — why...

EAs building God. NRxers conquering the state. No more wokes vs chuds, but Thiel vs Karnofsky; Land smiles bitterly. Debates not about bathrooms, but «fear Apocalypse less and Antichrist more» and «we must secure the future of the light cone». I’ve been there, when it all began. https://x.com/teortaxesTex/status/1813052509012824188.  And a modest comment from David Brooks. The post One view, not to be entirely dismissed...

Here is the tweet, which connects to various links of relevance. Website: https://eurekalabs.ai GitHub: https://github.com/EurekaLabsAI 𝕏:@EurekaLabsAI The post Andrej Karpathy is founding Eureka Labs, an AI education company appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsWhat's the point of posting a link to a course that has all ... by NapoleonThis company single handedly will explain why de-growth was a ... by Let's go!!!In reply...

1. Marc Nerlove has passed away. 2. Those new Strava jockey service sector jobs. 3. Polostan, new Neal Stephenson novel, with nuclear themes. 4. Mental health AI app with capybaras, it is definitely happening. 5. How cost-effective is the new R21 vaccine compared to existing malaria interventions? Quite effective. 6. Creating space in space: “Their main […] The post Tuesday assorted links appeared first on...

Here’s a wild phenomena I wasn’t previously aware of: In crystallography and materials science, a polymorph is a solid material that can exist in more than one crystal structure while maintaining the same chemical composition. Diamond and graphite are two polymorphs of carbon. Diamond is carbon crystalized with an isometric structure and graphite is carbon […] The post Disappearing polymorphs appeared first on Marginal...

The subtitle of the paper is The Case of the Venezuelan Exodus, and the authors are Jeremy Lebow, Jonathan Moreno-Medina, Salma Mousa, and Horacio Coral.  Here is part of the abstract: We study the mass exodus of Venezuelans across Latin America, which coincided with an unprecedented worsening in migrant sentiment in the countries that received […] The post Migrant exposure and anti-migrant sentiment appeared...