Bookmarks (547)

If you ask them whether they are short the market, many will say there is no way to short the apocalypse.  But of course you can benefit from pending signs of deterioration in advance.  At the very least, you can short some markets, or go long volatility, and then send those profits to Somalia to […] The post A funny feature of the AI...

1. Grandmaster level chess without search, or how AI can learn from Stockfish directly.   And one possible interpretation. 2. Shakespeare on the wane. 3. Eric Budish on the limits of blockchains, now in the QJE. 4. A defense of surveillance capitalism. 5. The effects of the Dawes Act on American Indian mortality. 6. Stripe and […] The post Monday assorted links appeared first on...

You will find it here.  Rick asked me to give him my account of Russian classical music, “standing on one foot” as you might say.  With musical clips as well, played on Rick’s sound system.  So we started with Rimsky and Mussorgsky, and the European and folk/peasant music traditions as contrasting influences in Russian music.  […] The post My Russian classical music podcast with...

He was a nineteenth century Belgian economist, wonderful to read, and still neglected as a thinker.  Here is one excerpt from a short open access book by Benoit Malbranque, now on line: Gustave de Molinari himself was perhaps as much a traveler, a journalist and an historian, as he was a political philosopher. In fact, […] The post Gustav de Molinari, the first libertarian?...

Here is part of the segment on AI: Given the potential for AI to exacerbate inequality, how can we redirect technology? We need to actively steer technological development in a direction that benefits broader swathes of humanity.  This require a pro-human approach that prioritises enhancing worker productivity and autonomy, supporting democracy and citizen empowerment, and […] The post Acemoglu interview with Times of India...

1. Casey Handmer on the exoplanet telescope. 2. What is England? 3. What is it like to work on a mega-yacht? 4. Income inequality and sexy selfies. 5. FT podcast with Mark Koyama and Jared Rubin on economic growth. 6. Cuban power grid collapses again. 7. A short genetic history of Ethiopia. The post Sunday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsIn...

Administrators cannot discuss panda illness, death, disease or “any other important matters” without first consulting with their Chinese partners, whose views “shall be fully respected.” “In cases where release of related information to the outside world or acceptance of media interviews is necessary, it shall be implemented only after communication and consultation between the parties […] The post What do panda rental contracts look...

A great little video on over-regulation. The post Musk on Sharks appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. Click the icon below to watch.         CommentsIn reply to blue jay. No doubt, the specifics of the story ... by Mark BahnerIn reply to Mark Bahner. Regulation with detail often lags ... by SignalIn reply to Bob. How so? The NHS puts their physician times ... by...

Saudi Arabia is preparing to begin construction work on its next giga-project: a cube-shaped skyscraper big enough to fit 20 Empire State Buildings. The Mukaab will be 400-meters on each side when construction is finished, which would make it the largest built structure in the world. The building will be the centerpiece of New Murabba, a […] The post Saudi construction project of the day...

Although it is widely acknowledged that high-skilled teachers are integral to service quality and young children’s well-being in child care settings, little is known about the qualifications and skills of the child care workforce. This paper combines data from multiple sources to provide a comprehensive assessment of the quality of individuals employed in the child […] The post The Declining Relative Quality of the...

1. “China’s top police officer has made a rare comment on economic matters with a call for better risk management and stability.” 2. “Who is the C.E.O. of Boar’s Head?” (NYT) 3. A very narrow skyscraper for Dubai. 4. Is tennis moving toward higher-variance strategies? 5. Claims about hiring. 6. U.S. start-up for embryo selection. The post Saturday assorted links appeared first on Marginal...

A man used homemade explosives, some of which he dropped from drones, to attack or intimidate in a dispute rooted in local politics in a community in northern Maine, law enforcement officials said. No one was hurt. Joshua Brydon, 37, of Woodland, appeared in court this week after authorities say he set off explosives near […] The post The protest culture that is Maine...

Iran is one of the few countries in the world to have eliminated the shortage of kidneys. A useful new paper looks at what donors are like, First some background: The adoption of a regulated market mechanism for kidney procurement in Iran started in 1988 in the absence of sufficient posthumous donations (Ghods and Savaj, […] The post Iranian Kidney Donors appeared first on...

I am usually skeptical of such efforts, but Journal of Health Economics is quite a serious outlet: Community water fluoridation has been named one of the 10 greatest public health achievements of the 20th century for its role in improving dental health. Fluoride has large negative effects at high doses, clear benefits at low levels, […] The post Fluoride revisionism? appeared first on Marginal...

This article reconciles conflicting views about the political landscape of corporate America with new data on the revealed political preferences of 97,469 corporate directors and executives at 9,005 different U.S. companies. I find that average ideology for these individuals has shifted meaningfully to the left over time, changing from modestly conservative in 2001 to roughly […] The post The Political Transformation of Corporate America,...

The Neom giga-project in Saudi Arabia is currently using one fifth of all the steel produced in the world, an official said on Monday. The futuristic city will be the world’s largest customer for construction materials for several decades, said Manar Al Moneef, Neom’s chief investment officer. She told the Global Logistics Forum in the King Abdullah […] The post Saudi claim of the day appeared...

1. Choose the right status hierarchies.  An excellent short essay. 2. How to solve America’s housing crisis. 3. Hugh Grant sides with Schelling and rebels against Adam Smith. 4. The new Sienese painting show at the Met (New Yorker). 5. Open Philanthropy looking for someone great to lead a new program on accelerating economic growth […] The post Friday assorted links appeared first on...

My values haven’t become more conservative — my desire for a more economically egalitarian and socially tolerant society has not diminished an iota. You won’t see me bellowing “I didn’t leave my party, my party left ME!!” and storming over to the GOP in a huff. But I have to say that I now doubt […] The post Noah Smith on the vibe shift...

That is the theme of my latest Bloomberg column, here is one excerpt: In the debates over Brexit almost a decade ago, it was periodically suggested that Britain’s higher trade barriers with the EU could lead to a beneficial upsurge in foreign direct investment, to serve the British market. So far Britain continues to languish […] The post Will Trumpian tariffs attract more foreign...

Toranj 10861 Lindbrook Dr, Los Angeles, CA 90024 Via Jeff Holmes.  And a little space birdy tells me that the best sandwich in LA is Roma Market, in Pasadena. The post The best fesenjan I’ve had in years appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsIn reply to Wisdom. Not disagreeing with your points but ... by Jim JordanIn reply to greg. Agreed! Was Roma...

1. Would a time machine make you a great investor? (WSJ) 2. Trialogues! 3. Valentina Goncharova song.  And the subversive music of Soviet Ukraine (NYT). 4. Paul Baran.  And Noah on AJR.  And Dylan Matthews. 5. Wisdom from Wemby. 6. Prussia fact of the day. The post Thursday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsIn reply to Neurotic. Call it sloth. Or...

By the 1950s, the Royal Society was asking reviewers to respond to standardized questions, including whether a study contained “contributions to knowledge of sufficient scientific interest” and simply whether the society should publish it. These questions could prompt brief responses even to significant pieces of work. Chemist Dorothy Hodgkin wrote barely 50 words when asked to review […] The post The early history of peer review...

I am a big fan of Musa’s work, most of all his new book We Have Never Been Woke: The Cultural Contradictions of a New Elite.  As for the podcast, here is the video, audio, and transcript.  Here is the episode summary: Tyler and Musa explore the rise and fall of the “Great Awokening” and […] The post My Conversation with Musa al-Gharbi appeared...

Recorded in August in Europe, here is the link.  One hour, forty-five minutes, mostly Rick asking me questions about what he would like to hear about from the worlds of economics and politics.  We do have I think also another one about music coming up… The post Rick Rubin podcasts with me appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         Comments1 Hour and 40 minutes? You...

1. Why didn’t the U.S. employment rate rise much at the end of WWII? 2. Chip Mellor, RIP. 3. Why kids should read obituaries. 4. WSJ reviews Henry Oliver’s  Second Act. 5. Poland is now a larger exporter than Russia. 6. Cargo airships are happening. The post Wednesday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsIn reply to JWatts. To be clear, I...

By Rohit Krishnan: Life in India is a series of bilateral negotiations conducted a thousand times a day. And that drives the character of life here. Now, I am seeing the country properly after several years. And it’s a major change. Visible infrastructure has gotten much better. Roads are good, well maintained, and highways are excellent. […] The post “Life in India is a series...

That is the theme of my latest Bloomberg column, and here is one bit: One big change is that AI will enable individuals, or very small groups, to run large projects. By directing AIs, they will be able to create entire think tanks, research centers or businesses. The productivity of small groups of people who […] The post How should strong AI alter philanthropy?...

Here is a new essay by Nabeel Qureshi, excerpt: The combo of intellectual grandiosity and intense competitiveness was a perfect fit for me. It’s still hard to find today, in fact – many people have copied the ‘hardcore’ working culture and the ‘this is the Marines’ vibe, but few have the intellectual atmosphere, the sense […] The post Reflections on Palantir appeared first on...

1. How to improve educational outcomes in developing economies. 2. That was then, this is now: Russia to unveil new Stalin statue. 3. African Urban Lab launched in Zanzibar. 4. Trailer for new documentary on Vitalik. 5. Sam Enright splat. 6. Alice Evans on the new Laureates. The post Tuesday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsIn reply to So Much For...

There is a slight glitch in the WordPress system, but your comments will appear eventually.  Apologies for any delays! The post Comment delays appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsIs this related to the ongoing WordPress WP Engine fiasco?? by CWIn reply to EdR. I wish I could add substacks to my rss ... by MattWMr Lincoln, Do not – I repeat – Do...

Since pioneering the first corporate purchase agreements for renewable electricity over a decade ago, Google has played a pivotal role in accelerating clean energy solutions, including the next generation of advanced clean technologies. Today, we’re building on these efforts by signing the world’s first corporate agreement to purchase nuclear energy from multiple small modular reactors (SMRs) […] The post Google signs contract for small modular...

We analyze 6,400 letters of recommendation for more than 2,200 economics and finance Ph.D. graduates from 2018 to 2021. Letter text varies significantly by field of interest, with significantly less positive and shorter letters for Macroeconomics and Finance candidates. Letters for female and Black or Hispanic job candidates are weaker in some dimensions, while letters […] The post Letters of recommendation appeared first on...

Running a haunted house can be a risky—if not scary—business. The barrier to entry is high, the overhead costs can be massive, and the attractions have just one very vulnerable month to earn their money. Like many other small businesses, 60% of them don’t make it past their third year, according to haunted-house review company […] The post The economics of haunted houses appeared...

A very good Columbus Day thread. The post Kevin Bryan on the contributions of AJR appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsIn reply to Dismalist. Why ignore the City's take of world ... by rsmIn reply to Does he deserve a Nobel ?. What is a Nobel other ... by rsmIn reply to Acemoglu is no ace !. Why no mention of military ......

The Nobel prize goes to Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson and James Robinson for their work on institutions, prosperity, and economic growth. Here is a key piece summarizing their work: Institutions as a Fundamental Cause of Long-Run Growth. This paper develops the empirical and theoretical case that differences in economic institutions are the fundamental cause of […] The post Acemoglu, Johnson and Robinson Win Nobel...

Here is my earlier CWT with Acemoglu, and with Simon Johnson. We’ll have to try to get to James Robinson.  Congratulations to the winners! The post Conversations with the new Laureates appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsIn reply to Johnny. The Swedes and not the Norwegians choose ... by RicardoLinks to the MR comments on these conversations: ... by Joe In MorgantownThe amusing...

1. Drones over U.S. military bases (WSJ). 2. Eric Topol podcast with the excellent Patrick Hsu. 3. Matt Clancy on AI progress.  Excellent thread. The post Monday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsIn reply to Ricardo. When the US hit the Houthis on January ... by chaos in the hubIn reply to Sparky. @Lord Action Suez Canal cargo volume is ......

What has surprised you the most this year? The development of decentralized training for AI models, from DiLoCo and DiPaCo from Google DeepMind to Distro coming up from Nous Research. It completely changes the game in terms of how we ought to think about large models and what we can do to train them. This means pure compute thresholds are not […] The post What surprised you the most this...

Alas, I am at a day-long event tomorrow, and from an unfavorable time zone, so probably won’t have much to say about the new Nobel pick.  Alex will be here, however.  Apologies to you all! Here is my earlier economics Nobel podcast with Alex, maybe for this year I will predict Susan Athey for machine […] The post Tomorrow’s Nobel appeared first on Marginal...

1. Dresden orchestra conducted by three-armed robot. 2. How advanced was construction technology in the Stone Age? 3. New England liberal arts college for sale for $5.5 million. 4. How Avital uses Claude. 5. Tanner Greer on Dario Amodei.  A very good sequence. The post Sunday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         Comments> 1. Dresden orchestra conducted by three-armed robot. I ......

Elon Musk’s tweets about the presidential election and spreading falsehoods about Hurricane Helene are endangering his ability to launch rockets off California’s central coast. The California Coastal Commission on Thursday rejected the Air Force’s plan to give SpaceX permission to launch up to 50 rockets a year from Vandenberg Air Force Base in Santa Barbara […] The post “California officials cite Elon Musk’s politics...

One of the most amazing facts to come out of the dockworker strike (now resolved, it seems): WSJ: Start with the astounding fact that there were 50,000 or so ILA strikers but only 25,000 or so port jobs. That’s right, only about half of the union’s members are obliged to show up to work each […] The post The Missing Dockworkers appeared first on...

One alternative approach, I’ve argued, would be to establish a framework to enable individuals and groups to acquire time-limited conditional legal property rights to plots of spaceland, on a Georgist-inspired market system (Lowe, 2022a, 2022b). On my approach, competitors would keep the full profit they made from the permissible use of their plots but competition […] The post How to allocate space rights? appeared...

We use an advanced model of the global economy to consider a set of scenarios consistent with the proposal to impose a minimum 60% tariff against Chinese imports and blanket minimum 10% tariff against all other US imports. The model’s structure, which includes imperfect competition in increasing-returns industries, is documented in Balistreri, Böhringer, and Rutherford […] The post The costs of U.S: tariff imposition...

Oil companies are conveying an unlikely message to the GOP and its presidential candidate: Spare President Biden’s signature climate law. At least the parts that benefit the oil industry. In discussions with former President Trump’s campaign and his allies in Congress, oil giants including Exxon Mobil, Phillips 66, and Occidental Petroleum have extolled the benefits of the Inflation Reduction Act. Many in […] The post That was then, this is now…...

1. Ross Douthat on late term abortion (NYT). 2. That’s a lot of AI subscriptions.  Somehow I found that link hilarous. 3. Centre Pompidou outpost in…New Jersey? 4. Poland to suspend asylum rights temporarily. 5. Michael Pettis profile (WSJ…p.s. prices are flexible in the medium-term). 6. Another case of qualified scientists getting actual public policy […] The post Saturday assorted links appeared first on...

Here is a longish essay, here is one excerpt: Economists often talk about “factors of production”: things like labor, land, and capital. The phrase “marginal returns to labor/land/capital” captures the idea that in a given situation, a given factor may or may not be the limiting one – for example, an air force needs both […] The post Dario Amodei on AI and the...

…it’s notable that if you look at the major deregulator measures of the past four years, it mostly happened under Jimmy Carter (Natural Gas Policy Act of 1978, Airline Deregulation Act of 1978, Motor Carrier Act of 1980, Depository Institutions Deregulation and Monetary Control Act of 1980) or Bill Clinton (Interstate Banking and Branching Efficiency […] The post Matt Yglesias on regulation and deregulation...

PIER Plans will be evaluated as part of the merit review process and will be used to inform funding decisions. The review criterion, Quality and Efficacy of the Plan for Promoting Inclusive and Equitable Research, will be included as one of the merit review criteria that peer reviewers will use to evaluate applications. The Office […] The post From the Department of Energy appeared...

1. My podcast with Minus One. 2. Why are fewer men going to college? 3. Warren Nutter’s Soviet research for the CIA. 4. Those new service sector jobs: “This Texas Mom Charges Over $1,000 for Her Elaborate Pumpkin Displays.” 5. Pizza Hut Will Deliver Your Resume Printed on a Pizza Box to Prospective Employers (NYC only). […] The post Friday assorted links appeared first on...