~marginalrevolution | Bookmarks (68)

Here is a new paper by Sara Abrahamsson.  Perhaps there is Norwegian exceptionalism at work, but the results reflect my expectations reasonably closely.  The basic setting is that smart phones were banned in middle school, but at varying (and exogenous) rates around the country.  Here are some of the core findings, noting that reading the […] The post The Norwegian ban on smart phones...

Why did I deepfake myself? To see if conversing with an AI-generated version of myself can lead to self-reflection, new insights into my thought patterns, and deep truths. pic.twitter.com/DWODoZ9lXL — Reid Hoffman (@reidhoffman) April 24, 2024 The post It’s happening, Reid Hoffman AI twin edition, wwrgs? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsIn reply to Gridlock. Rene Girard! by TCCIn reply to Swami. It...

Ray-Ban Meta smart glasses just got a massive Multimodal upgrade – Meta AI with Vision It doesn't just take speech input, it can now answer questions about what you are seeing. Here are 8 features that is now possible 1. Ask about what you are seeing pic.twitter.com/IJQ3WuZMAJ — Min Choi (@minchoi) April 24, 2024 The post Imagine recording and storing everything you read appeared...

By Rohit Krishnan, he and I are both interested in the question of what LLMs cannot do, and why.  Here is one excerpt: It might be best to say that LLMs demonstrate incredible intuition but limited intelligence. It can answer almost any question that can be answered in one intuitive pass. And given sufficient training data […] The post What can LLMs never do? appeared...

That is the new Daron Acemoglu paper, and he is skeptical about its overall economic effects.  Here is part of the abstract: Using existing estimates on exposure to AI and productivity improvements at the task level, these macroeconomic effects appear nontrivial but modest—no more than a 0.71% increase in total factor productivity over 10 years. […] The post “The Simple Macroeconomics of AI” appeared...

The post Dwarkesh interviews Mark Zuckerberg on Llama 3 and more appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsIn reply to Anon. I agree by BlixyIn reply to Naveen K. I don't think he , personally is that ... by mentoAre you updating yet? If you aren't, are you buying Nvidia? by jason yIn reply to maybe. He is a dimwit. I’ve always felt that...

The craziest LLaMA 3 reveal: The 400B+ version of the model is **on par with Claude 3 Opus**, and it's still training. Soon, we'll have a better-than-Opus, fully open-source model. The implications are huge. pic.twitter.com/chaDp7jaCa — Matt Shumer (@mattshumer_) April 18, 2024 Here is from Meta. The post Claims about claims (it’s happening) appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsIn reply to Brendan Long....

Only rarely: Recent social movements stand out by their spontaneous nature and lack of stable leadership, raising doubts on their ability to generate political change. This article provides systematic evidence on the effects of protests on public opinion and political attitudes. Drawing on a database covering the quasi-universe of protests held in the United States, […] The post Do protests matter? appeared first on...

Here is the audio, video, and transcript, along with almost thirty minutes of audience questions, filmed in Miami.  Here is the episode summary: Tyler and Peter Thiel dive deep into the complexities of political theology, including why it’s a concept we still need today, why Peter’s against Calvinism (and rationalism), whether the Old Testament should […] The post My excellent Conversation with Peter Thiel...

“Name three famous people who all share the exact same birth date and year.” Usually it fails, the most common failure being it names someone with the correct date but the incorrect year.  Telling it to “reason step by step” is no panacea either.  And if you want to make it harder, ask for more […] The post GPT-4-Turbo still doesn’t answer this question...

A very good piece, by Eric Levitz, note Vox is not renowned for defending Big Tech. The post Voxsplainer on smart phones and teen mental health appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsIn reply to M. It was obvious in the late 2000s when Facebook ... by BillyboyIn reply to Michael Stack. So…uh…what's up with the ... by Michael StackIn reply to Billyboy. Either...

In this paper, we introduce TimeGPT, the first foundation model for time series, capable of generating accurate predictions for diverse datasets not seen during training. We evaluate our pre-trained model against established statistical, machine learning, and deep learning methods, demonstrating that TimeGPT zero-shot inference excels in performance, efficiency, and simplicity. Our study provides compelling evidence […] The post TimeGPT-1 appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION....

One MR reader, Luca Piron, writes to me:  I found myself puzzled by a thought you expressed during your interview with Professor Haidt. In particular, from my understanding you suggested that in the near future AI will be able to sum up the content a user may want to see into a digest, so that they can […] The post A simple model of AI and...

The rise of algorithmic pricing raises concerns of algorithmic collusion. We conduct experiments with algorithmic pricing agents based on Large Language Models (LLMs), and specifically GPT-4. We find that (1) LLM-based agents are adept at pricing tasks, (2) LLM-based pricing agents autonomously collude in oligopoly settings to the detriment of consumers, and (3) variation in […] The post Algorithmic Collusion by Large Language Models...

From Anton Korinek here is a recent paper: Generative AI, in particular large language models (LLMs) such as ChatGPT, has the potential to revolutionize research. I describe dozens of use cases along six domains in which LLMs are starting to become useful as both research assistants and tutors: ideation and feedback, writing, background research, data […] The post Generative AI for economists appeared first...

The LLMs basically win: This paper presents a novel study on harnessing Large Language Models’ (LLMs) outstanding knowledge and reasoning abilities for explainable financial time series forecasting. The application of machine learning models to financial time series comes with several challenges, including the difficulty in cross-sequence reasoning and inference, the hurdle of incorporating multi-modal signals […] The post LLMs vs. ARMA-GARCH appeared first on...

OpenAI released a Music Video with Sorait's puzzling i dont think ive ever seen anything quite like this before pic.twitter.com/8OzUVuQmFL — nano (@nanulled) April 2, 2024 The post It’s happening, music and video edition appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsI don’t know what this was, but I watched it all the way ... by DavidBThey should unrelease it by OutHereIn reply to Hazel...

breaking: Microsoft and OpenAI are drawing up plans for a $100 billion AI supercomputer The supercomputer, codenamed "Stargate," would contain *millions* of GPUs and require several gigawatts of power Full story here w/ @amir for @theinformation: https://t.co/sLp8P3FdcV — Anissa Gardizy (@anissagardizy8) March 29, 2024 The post It’s happening appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsIn reply to Hi. A $100B is nothing compared to...

That is the topic of my latest Bloomberg column.  Here is one excerpt: First, as a matter of practice, if there is a true AI boom, or the advent of artificial general intelligence (AGI), the demand for capital expenditures (capex) will be extremely high. Second, as a matter of theory, the productivity of capital is […] The post Will strong AI raise or lower...

Let’s say the Sumerians were gifted strong AI, simply as an exogenous shock to a historical model.  Could they put it to much use?  Electricity would be one immediate problem, but not the only problem. Or give strong AI to a caveman. Thomas Edison had electricity, but how much could he do with strong AI?  […] The post Strong AI and the O-Ring model...

Try it here, click on the right on the mention of making full, two-minute songs and use the Explore tab.  To me it is remarkable the resulting AI-generated music is as good as it is.  But it still isn’t anything I would listen to, other than out of curiosity.  It is best at edm, standardized […] The post My review of Suno, AI-generated music...

On the road, I haven’t had a chance to read this paper yet, but I pass it along as a matter of interest: Theory predicts that global economic growth will stagnate and even come to an end due to slower and eventually negative growth in population. It has been claimed, however, that Artificial Intelligence (AI) […] The post Is an Economic Growth Explosion Imminent?...

We conducted the first randomized controlled trial to study the effect of AI assistance on human legal analysis. We randomly assigned law school students to complete realistic legal tasks either with or without the assistance of GPT-4. We tracked how long the students took on each task and blind-graded the results. We found that access […] The post Lawyering in the Age of Artificial...

Knowing that the proper use of AI will help the Church accomplish God’s work of salvation and exaltation, the Church has issued the following guiding principles for using AI. These were introduced to employees of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints worldwide on Wednesday, March 13, 2024, by Elder Gerrit W. Gong of […] The post LDS principles for AI appeared first...