~marginalrevolution | Bookmarks (369)

Congratulations!  Here is the AEA announcement and summary of his work. The post Philipp Strack wins the J.B. Clark award appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsTalking of prize winners Peter Higgs has died. by deariemeIn reply to rayward. Ah Bonn, the most rigorous math ... by DaveIn reply to dearieme. The only correct way of spell it is ... by JamalIn reply to...

3 Body Problem (Netflix): Great! A captivating mix of big ideas, a compelling mystery, and spectacular set-pieces like the Cultural Revolution, strange worlds, the ship cutting and more. Of course, there are some weaknesses. 3 Body Problem falters in its portrayal of genius, rendering the British scientists as too normal, overlooking the obsessiveness, ambition, and […] The post What to Watch appeared first on...

1. NYT symposium on smart phones and childhood.  And when do young female suicide rates start rising?  Tweet here.  And “Gen Alpha (my kid’s generation) has already optimized out of it and have figured out how to do the social play they need to in the new medium.” 2. Prize money for prompts. 3. Bridgewater […] The post Monday assorted links appeared first on...

Jon Hartley is one I know, here is the abstract: This study pushes our understanding of research reliability by reproducing and replicating claims from 110 papers in leading economic and political science journals. The analysis involves computational reproducibility checks and robustness assessments. It reveals several patterns. First, we uncover a high rate of fully computationally […] The post 350+ coauthors study reproducibility in economics...

We often hear today that Wokeism and Political Correctness are gradually receding.  Contrary to this opinion, I think that this phenomenon is gradually being “normalized,” widely accepted even by those who intimately doubt it, and practiced by the majority of academic and state institutions.  This is why it deserves more than ever our criticism — […] The post Can you guess who wrote this...

1. Can the Left be happy? (Ross D. in the NYT) 2. Explosive growth from AI automation?  (This paper is economically literature, and uses some simple models) 3. James C. Scott, “Academic Diary of an Iconoclast” (academic gate). 4. Some more serious evidence that rising population density predicts lower fertility uh-oh. 5. Liberia fact of […] The post Sunday assorted links appeared first on...

Konstantin emails me a question: Hey Tyler! You said you tried coffee just once, at a coffee ceremony in an Ethiopian village, as coffee probably originates in Ethiopia. What else would you try (or do) only due to its provenance? What else have you tried or done only due to its provenance? I used to always try […] The post When does provenance justify a consumption...

One MR reader, Luca Piron, writes to me:  I found myself puzzled by a thought you expressed during your interview with Professor Haidt. In particular, from my understanding you suggested that in the near future AI will be able to sum up the content a user may want to see into a digest, so that they can […] The post A simple model of AI and...

1. Zvi annotates the CWT with Jon Haidt. 2. How is bird flu spreading in cows? 3. Not sure I believe in these kinds of correlations, but here are some results suggesting that automation leads to less religion. 4. Claims about GPTs.  Complicated but interesting. 5. Ezra Klein and Nilay Patel on AI and the […] The post Saturday assorted links appeared first on...

Zimbabwe has introduced a new gold-backed currency called ZiG – the name stands for “Zimbabwe Gold”. It is the latest attempt to stabilise an economy that has lurched from crisis to crisis for the past 25 years. Unveiling the new notes, central bank governor John Mushayavanhu said the ZiG would be structured, and set at […] The post Zimbabwe launches new gold-backed currency appeared...

The mayor of an Italian island is attempting to solve an animal overpopulation problem with an unusual offer: free goats for anyone who can catch them. Riccardo Gullo, the mayor of Alicudi, in Sicily’s Aeolian archipelago, introduced an “adopt-a-goat” program when the small island’s wild goat population grew to six times the human population of […] The post Lockean homesteading for goats, bonus added...

1. Matt Lakeman on El Salvador, recommended. 2. Paxlovid not having a positive impact for the healthy and already-vaccinated. 3. Under what conditions will every Japanese person be named Sato by 2531? 4. Is “dark energy” weakening? And more from the NYT. 5. The Economist seeks a new economics writer. 6. How to lead coordinated […] The post Friday assorted links appeared first on...

From Anton Korinek here is a recent paper: Generative AI, in particular large language models (LLMs) such as ChatGPT, has the potential to revolutionize research. I describe dozens of use cases along six domains in which LLMs are starting to become useful as both research assistants and tutors: ideation and feedback, writing, background research, data […] The post Generative AI for economists appeared first...

Africa's debt crisis is back to where it was in the late 1990s, with almost one fifth of government revenues now used to service foreign loans. The cost is being counted in crumbling clinics and schools, and economic stagnation pic.twitter.com/3zAGRC6ule — Patrick Watt (@WattPatrick) April 2, 2024 The post Is an African debt crisis returning? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsIs california yimby...

1. Percentage of women in C-Suite jobs is now declining in the U.S. 2. Short piece by my colleague Dan Klein on misinformation (WSJ). 3. A thread on new minimum wage results, noting that Dube has a response in there as well.  Paper here. 4. Can GPT-4 talk people out of conspiracy theories?  Maybe. 5. […] The post Thursday more assorted links appeared first...

The LLMs basically win: This paper presents a novel study on harnessing Large Language Models’ (LLMs) outstanding knowledge and reasoning abilities for explainable financial time series forecasting. The application of machine learning models to financial time series comes with several challenges, including the difficulty in cross-sequence reasoning and inference, the hurdle of incorporating multi-modal signals […] The post LLMs vs. ARMA-GARCH appeared first on...

1. Interview with Michael Elowitz on synthetic biology.  Asimov Press again. 2. The brothers who collected Star Trek memorabilia (NYT).  A weird story, believe it or not. 3. The importance of foreign workers for national security. 4. What makes home building so expensive? (cost issues, not NIMBY issues) 5. The growing rate of NBA twins. […] The post Thursday assorted links appeared first on...

1. Where do the Amish go on vacation? (2018 New Yorker piece) 2. “Adding noise to a grantmaking decision can induce more applications” 3. How olive oil marked globalization. 4. The Facebook rollout study. 5. Botswana threatens to send 20,000 elephants to Germany. The post Wednesday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         Comments#2 is what I've always said about Ivy admissions. Since there's...

That is the topic of my latest Bloomberg column.  I cover several points, here is one of them, based on the economic idea of intertemporal substitution: In this sense, Canada is ahead of much of the rest of the world in seeing the importance of these factors and turning it into actionable policy. It is […] The post Why aren’t Canada and other Anglo...

1. New Zealand’s building boom. 2. Thread on new research on why people hate inflation, by Stefanie Stantcheva. 3. NFTs as part of the art world doing better than many people think. 4. ‘I’m 28. And I’m Scheduled to Die in May.’ 5. List of biotech-themed questions. 6. “Headline results: we estimate raising Dogger Bank […] The post Tuesday assorted links appeared first on...

Martin Gurri has a very good, deep-dive on the current situation in Cuba. The wreckage of the Cuban economy really can’t be exaggerated. The perpetual blackouts are an apt symbol of a country that is headed for the dark ages. For the first time since the revolution, Cuba is begging the United Nations for food aid. Nearly […] The post Cuba Libre appeared first on Marginal...

None dare call it eugenics: Dachshunds, the German dog breed known for their distinctive long bodies and short legs, face an uncertain future if proposed changes to an animal protection law are approved, Germany’s kennel club said. A draft of the bill, from the German Ministry of Food and Agriculture, was published in February and […] The post The polity that is German appeared...

1. How much would you pay never to saw off a finger? (NYT) 2. Scott Sumner movie reviews. 3. Peter Eotvos, RIP (NYT). 4. Haidt responds to critics.  And is schizophrenia a useful identifying variable? 5. Vaccine mandates were counterproductive for health care workers. 6. New guidelines on email deliverability. 7. Highly speculative take on […] The post Monday assorted links appeared first on...

The author is Karthik Muralidharan, and the subtitle is A State-Led Roapmap for Effective Governance.  If you imagine a 600 pp. “state capacity libertarian” take on Indian development this is what you get, admittedly with the libertarian side of the equation downplayed a bit.  Excerpt: A common misconception is that the inefficiencies of the Indian […] The post *Accelerating India’s Development* appeared first on...