~marginalrevolution | Bookmarks (170)

That is the topic of my latest Bloomberg column.  Here is one excerpt: First, as a matter of practice, if there is a true AI boom, or the advent of artificial general intelligence (AGI), the demand for capital expenditures (capex) will be extremely high. Second, as a matter of theory, the productivity of capital is […] The post Will strong AI raise or lower...

Vital City magazine and the Niskanen Center’s Hypertext have a special issue on the prospects for “evidence-based policymaking.” The issue takes as its starting point, Megan Stevenson’s Cause, effect, and the structure of the social world, a survey of RCTs in criminology which concludes that the vast majority of interventions “have little to no lasting […] The post Is there Hope for Evidence-Based Policy?...

Here is the audio, video, and transcript.  You can tell he knows what an interview is!  At the same time, he understands this differs from many of his other venues and he responds with flying colors.  Here is the episode summary: Tyler sat down with Fareed to discuss what he learned from Khushwant Singh as […] The post My Conversation with Fareed Zakaria appeared...

Open borders hasn’t been getting a lot of good press recently but next week Bulgaria and Romania will join the Schengen Area for air and sea travel (road travel will likely follow). No more passports or visa necessary! The Schengen Area is a remarkable achievement for a part of the world once riven by violence […] The post Opening Borders appeared first on Marginal...

There are pronounced racial, ethnic, and gender gaps in income in the U.S. We investigate whether these correspond with differences in competitiveness, risk tolerance, and confidence relative to performance in a large, stratified sample of the U.S. prime-age population. We find substantial differences in all three traits across Black, Hispanic, and White males and females. […] The post Disparities in psychological traits and incomes...

Is this the first one? We conduct a survey-based experiment with 2,776 students at a non-profit university to analyze income insurance demand in education financing. We offered students a hypothetical choice: either a federal loan with income-driven repayment or an income-share agreement (ISA), with randomized framing of downside protections. Emphasizing income insurance increased ISA uptake […] The post An RCT for income-sharing agreements appeared...

The Solow model is a foundational model for understanding economic growth. Yet it’s typically not taught to principles students because it’s considered too difficult. In Modern Principles, however, Tyler and I develop a super simple version of the model that is fun to teach and accessible to students of all levels. I’ll be talking about […] The post Teaching the Solow Model appeared first...

Here is a good Substack essay by Nicolas Cachanosky, excerpt: Inflation expectations depend on what is expected to happen to the budget in the months to come. It is natural, then, to ask whether the observed surpluses are sustainable in the months ahead. Answering this question requires looking at two things. First, how was the fiscal […] The post How credible is the Milei plan?...

On the road, I haven’t had a chance to read this paper yet, but I pass it along as a matter of interest: Theory predicts that global economic growth will stagnate and even come to an end due to slower and eventually negative growth in population. It has been claimed, however, that Artificial Intelligence (AI) […] The post Is an Economic Growth Explosion Imminent?...

Here is my blurb for the book: “Bryan Caplan is a pioneer in the use of graphic novels to expound economic concepts. His new book Build, Baby, Build is thus a landmark in economic education, how to present economic ideas, and the integration of economic analysis and graphic visuals. If you want to learn the economics, ethics, […] The post *Build, Baby, Build*, by Bryan Caplan...

Bryan Caplan has a good post on out-of-state tuition: [State schools] almost always charge students from their own state much lower tuition. In the most recent data, average out-of-state tuition for four-year colleges was $26,382, versus $9,212 for in-state — roughly a 3:1 ratio. I’ve argued for a long time that an enterprising lawyer ought to sue […] The post The Puzzling Law and Economics of...

By Anton Korinek and Donghyun Suh, in a new NBER working paper: We analyze how output and wages behave under different scenarios for technological progress that may culminate in Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), defined as the ability of AI systems to perform all tasks that humans can perform. We assume that human work can be […] The post Scenarios for the Transition to AGI...

He is a podcaster who mainly does transcripts.  Our discussion was largely but by no means entirely about climate change, here is one excerpt: Sam: And India also is building huge amounts of new renewable and other electricity generating capacity. They’re building electric rail networks. They seem to be hitting their stride in a way that […] The post My interview with Sam Matey appeared...

The full paper title is “Has Intergenerational Progress Stalled? Income Growth Over Five Generations of Americans,” by Kevin Corrinth and Jeff Larrimore.  Here is the abstract: We find that each of the past four generations of Americans was better off than the previous one, using a post-tax, post-transfer income measure constructed annually from 1963-2022 based […] The post New results on intergenerational progress appeared...

I am setting aside most of the cultural and “macro” issues, and just considering policy, in my latest Bloomberg column.  Excerpt: Consider agriculture. If you fly over Hispaniola, you can see a notable difference between the Haitian and Dominican sides of the border. The Dominican side has plenty of trees, whereas the Haitian side is denuded. Much […] The post Haiti vs. the Dominican Republic appeared...

Steve Sinofsky, former president of Microsoft’s Windows division and now a VC, has an excellent deep dive on the EU’s Digital Markets Act (DMA). The Act is very squarely aimed at Apple, despite the fact that Apple is not a monopoly and has a significantly smaller share of the phone market than Android. Apple’s history […] The post Gatekeeping is Apple’s Brand Promise appeared...

Thomas is at the Templeton Foundation, here is the link (with transcript), here is one bit: Tom: …So, I know that you’re a voracious reader, you’re immensely curious. Going back to your childhood, what were some of your favorite books during some of those formative years? Tyler: Well, when I was very small, my favorite books […] The post My podcast with Thomas Burnett appeared...

Here is an appreciation from Texas A&M. The post Thomas Saving, RIP appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsI met Tom Saving a number of times at the Mont Pelerin Society ... by Mark SkousenI'm not sure whether Thomas Saving being appointed to manage ... by Brandon BergIn reply to mkt42. I think he came up with the .2% Medicare ... by Cancelled for...

Here is an outline of part of my lecture.  I presented “free trade” (NB: it wasn’t totally free), the classical gold standard, and some modicum of free immigration (not everywhere) as three successful and mostly stable pillars of 19th century classical liberal achievement.  Of course that was for limited parts of Western Europe and North […] The post Some triumphs of 19th century liberalism...

It’s really, right now, I think the profession is very inward-looking. It’s rewarding people who do things that are seen as hard. It’s really blurring the lines between theory and empirics was structural in a way that it is an experiment that I personally don’t think has worked out very well. And so, I think […] The post Steve Levitt on the future of...

The shock therapy administered by Milei and his economy czar Luis Caputo right after the Dec. 10 inauguration is showing results. In a severely recessionary context, inflation is slowing down (February prices rose 13.2% in monthly terms compared with 25.5% in December) while foreign reserves grew by more than $7 billion despite debt repayments. Deposits on local […] The post Milei update appeared first on Marginal...

Steve Levitt anecdote: economics has found its Bill Laimbeer.  Other excellent anecdotes in the thread.  And Levitt on publishing and academia, recommended.  This superb podcast episode is a real coup for Jon Hartley, transcript also at the link.  File under “too good to excerpt,” this is quite simply one of the best podcasts ever. The post Jon Hartley podcast episode with Steve Levitt appeared...

A charter city is a special zone with a charter granting significant autonomy from the host country’s regulations. Hong Kong, a succesful Chinese city operating under British law, was one early inspiration. Examples like this fueled criticisms that charter cities were “neo-colonial”. But Charter cities do not inherently require foreign legal frameworks. The fundamental purpose […] The post Indigenous Charter Cities appeared first on...

In latest @CapAndFreedom ep, Steve Levitt talks his career & retiring as @UChicago prof while still leading RISC & Freakonomics. We talk applied economics, Chicago econ dept (price theory failure, macro success, personalities), Freakonomics origin & more https://t.co/bdBKovL7PF — Jon Hartley (@Jon_Hartley_) March 13, 2024   The post Steve Levitt is retiring from academia appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsWow, Steve Levitt's stories...