Bookmarks (278)

What has Brexit meant for the UK economy? Six years on from the referendum, and over a year since the implementation of the UK–EU Trade and Cooperation Agreement, this column introduces a new eBook which brings together leading academic researchers on trade, immigration, and the political economy of Brexit to present new research and evidence on different aspects of this question.

When pension giant ABP faced protests about its fossil fuel investment strategy, did it choose to exert pressure on oil companies or divest from them? Jeff Wurgler and Dirk Schoenmaker talk to Tim Phillips about how the finance sector can accelerate a green transition.

The share of pre-tax income flowing to the top of the UK income distribution is significantly higher than it was in the early 1980s. This column explains the nature of top incomes in the UK and how they are taxed. Overall, the authors argue, UK income taxes are progressive, with average tax rates rising with income. But incomes from business ownership and investment are...

In 2022, consumer price inflation in the euro area has climbed to record highs. As a result, many households have increased their inflation expectations, thus increasing the risks of more persistent inflation in the future. Using the Bundesbank Online Panel Households as a laboratory, this column provides evidence that individuals who are shown ECB communication on the inflation outlook significantly reduce their inflation expectations....

During the CEPR’s June 2022 Paris Symposium Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan presented her recent studies that make an economic case for global vaccinations. Her research shows that the richer part of the world would see a return of 120 %, were they to invest in a global vaccination programme. 

Inequality statistics come with a lag relative to growth statistics. This column presents new real-time inequality statistics for the US, synchronised with growth statistics, which show that all income groups recovered their pre-crisis pre-tax income level within 20 months of the beginning of the Covid-induced recession. Covid-related transfers drastically but temporarily increased disposable incomes for the bottom 50%, well above their pre-Covid levels. Real...

Environmental, social, and governance metrics are receiving increasing attention as a measure of corporate performance. This column uses cross-sectional data to assess the prevalence and impact of including such metrics in executive compensation schemes. Usage of ‘ESG pay’ has grown rapidly in the past decade, with over 30% of firms including ESG metrics in their key performance indicators in 2021. It is more common...

How temperature dynamics affect the economy is key to understanding the impact of climate change on monetary policy. This column presents new evidence that local temperature fluctuations had aggregate effects on the US in the last 50 years. Results show that US-wide temperature shocks, constructed by weighting unexpected county-level temperature variations, reduced both GDP and consumer prices, inducing an expansionary monetary policy reaction and...

The death toll from HIV/AIDS in Africa would be a lot higher today were it not for the impact of anti-retroviral therapies. But as well as saving countless lives, have these drugs also reduced conflict? Rede more bout this research and download the free DP:Berlanda, A, Cervellati, M, Esposito, E, Rohner, D and Sunde, U. 2022. 'Medication Against Conflict'. 

Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of disasters, but the ability to cope varies widely across the globe. This column examines how city death tolls and economic activity are affected by flooding. Richer places with the resources and infrastructure to cope with disasters tend to be more resilient. Compared to cities in low-income countries, those in high-income countries suffered fewer deaths per disaster, adapted...

Recorded at CEPR’s June 2022 Paris Symposium, Paula Bustos presents her recent research on the effects of both climate and climate change on the movement of people across sectors. When compared to past international shocks, climate change is seen to have a larger effect because it generates greater movement of people, in particular agricultural workers who are especially vulnerable to the consequences of adverse weather...

Central banks around the globe face new challenges in the form of adverse supply shocks, rising inflation rates, and the consequential need to tighten monetary policy without causing dislocations in financial markets and the real economy. In addressing these, the accompanying communication of central banks is often seen to be as important as the actual policy actions. This column shows that market responses can...

Citizens often seem to choose which political party to support by seeking out information based on their party affiliation, rather than based on informed opinion. Along with the explosion in new media in the US, trust in mainstream media has been decreasing, particularly amongst Republicans. This column presents a framework to analyse how beliefs regarding the mainstream media impact individual media choice and thereby...

Large investments in low-carbon technologies are needed to limit global warming. This column uses data on US start-ups over the past 20 years to analyse how venture capital in clean technologies can address the funding gap. It argues that unsuccessful nationwide US climate policy has dampened demand for clean energy technologies in the past. Moving forward, governments need to implement persistent demand-side policies, such...

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine added another one to a series of crises affecting Europe over the last decade and a half. This column finds that fragmentation of euro area financial markets has been relatively limited, as policymakers have benefitted from reforms after and experiences with past crises, European countries and authorities reacted with quite some unity, and direct financial exposures to Russia and Ukraine...

Analysis of large-scale conflicts over the past 30 years can shed light on the range of possible economic outcomes for Ukraine. This column shows that, in general, the impact on GDP is very large, persisting even ten years after conflict onset, and affects all sectors of the economy. This is overwhelmingly driven by declines in private consumption and official trade. In addition, large-scale conflicts...

There have been many shocks to the Eurozone over the past 15 years: the financial crisis, the debt crisis, Covid, and the current war in Ukraine. Interviewed at CEPR’s June 2022 Paris Symposium, Lucrezia Reichlin tells us about her recent research into how best to use monetary and fiscal tools to respond to these and future shocks.

Opposition to a carbon tax was at the root of the gilets jaunes protests in France. Did the protestors think the tax wouldn’t work, or that it wasn’t fair, or that they would personally lose out? Adrien Fabre talks to Tim Phillips about the link between tax and trust in government.

In November 2021, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the European Commission, and CEPR brought together US- and European-based policymakers and economists from academia, think tanks, and international financial institutions to discuss issues that transatlantic policymakers are facing. This column summarises the principal themes and findings of the conference discussion on questions such as how to support growth while addressing inflationary pressures, facilitating...

In order to improve the water quality of the downstream stretch of the Xin’an River, in 2011 China implemented the Ecological Compensation Initiative, a pioneering policy establishing side payments between upstream and downstream provinces. This column shows that the initiative mitigates cross-border externalities by sharply reducing water pollutant emissions by upstream firms and also induces firms to relocate to neighbouring cities. The findings highlight the potential for...

There is robust evidence that children lost ground academically as a consequence of the pandemic, but less research into how the effects varied by school district and household demographics. Using test data from 2.1 million students across the US, this column finds that remote instruction was a primary driver of widening achievement gaps by race and poverty. The authors argue that low-income districts that taught remotely in 2020-21 will need to spend...

When aid donors are distracted by domestic concerns, do aid recipients take advantage to suppress political opposition? Data from Africa suggest that they do, Dominic Rohner tells Tim Phillips.

Recently, a range of countries have introduced laws prohibiting disadvantaged individuals from moving into public housing in specific areas, for example because they are unemployed or have too low an income, in an attempt to avoid the formation of ghettos and unwanted spatial disparities in the standards of living. This column studies one such law in the Netherlands and finds that it has not...

It is important to understand the micro drivers of the economy’s reaction to large macro shocks. This column uses French firm-level data from 1993-2020 to study the contribution of the largest exporters to aggregate export fluctuations. The authors find that top exporters explained over 40% of aggregate fluctuations and drove the export collapses during the Global Crisis and the pandemic. Moreover, the 2020 collapse...