~marginalrevolution | Bookmarks (19)

In this paper, we introduce TimeGPT, the first foundation model for time series, capable of generating accurate predictions for diverse datasets not seen during training. We evaluate our pre-trained model against established statistical, machine learning, and deep learning methods, demonstrating that TimeGPT zero-shot inference excels in performance, efficiency, and simplicity. Our study provides compelling evidence […] The post TimeGPT-1 appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION....

One MR reader, Luca Piron, writes to me:  I found myself puzzled by a thought you expressed during your interview with Professor Haidt. In particular, from my understanding you suggested that in the near future AI will be able to sum up the content a user may want to see into a digest, so that they can […] The post A simple model of AI and...

The rise of algorithmic pricing raises concerns of algorithmic collusion. We conduct experiments with algorithmic pricing agents based on Large Language Models (LLMs), and specifically GPT-4. We find that (1) LLM-based agents are adept at pricing tasks, (2) LLM-based pricing agents autonomously collude in oligopoly settings to the detriment of consumers, and (3) variation in […] The post Algorithmic Collusion by Large Language Models...

From Anton Korinek here is a recent paper: Generative AI, in particular large language models (LLMs) such as ChatGPT, has the potential to revolutionize research. I describe dozens of use cases along six domains in which LLMs are starting to become useful as both research assistants and tutors: ideation and feedback, writing, background research, data […] The post Generative AI for economists appeared first...

The LLMs basically win: This paper presents a novel study on harnessing Large Language Models’ (LLMs) outstanding knowledge and reasoning abilities for explainable financial time series forecasting. The application of machine learning models to financial time series comes with several challenges, including the difficulty in cross-sequence reasoning and inference, the hurdle of incorporating multi-modal signals […] The post LLMs vs. ARMA-GARCH appeared first on...

That is the topic of my latest Bloomberg column.  Here is one excerpt: First, as a matter of practice, if there is a true AI boom, or the advent of artificial general intelligence (AGI), the demand for capital expenditures (capex) will be extremely high. Second, as a matter of theory, the productivity of capital is […] The post Will strong AI raise or lower...

On the road, I haven’t had a chance to read this paper yet, but I pass it along as a matter of interest: Theory predicts that global economic growth will stagnate and even come to an end due to slower and eventually negative growth in population. It has been claimed, however, that Artificial Intelligence (AI) […] The post Is an Economic Growth Explosion Imminent?...

By Anton Korinek and Donghyun Suh, in a new NBER working paper: We analyze how output and wages behave under different scenarios for technological progress that may culminate in Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), defined as the ability of AI systems to perform all tasks that humans can perform. We assume that human work can be […] The post Scenarios for the Transition to AGI...

Steve Sinofsky, former president of Microsoft’s Windows division and now a VC, has an excellent deep dive on the EU’s Digital Markets Act (DMA). The Act is very squarely aimed at Apple, despite the fact that Apple is not a monopoly and has a significantly smaller share of the phone market than Android. Apple’s history […] The post Gatekeeping is Apple’s Brand Promise appeared...

Via Francis Santora, Hudson County, NJ. The post Claude 3 Opus as economic analyst appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsClaude 3: what's the error bar on GDP? Can you run your Monte ... by rsmIn reply to Of course. I am fasting. The earth has a creator, ... by EquestrianIn reply to Taylor. The model it built clearly suffered from ... by VulcidianIn...

Fast Grants, the rapid COVID funding mechanism created by Tyler, Patrick Collison and Patrick Hsu continues to inspire change around the world. Jano Costard, the Head of Challenges at SPRIND, the German Federal Agency for Disruptive Innovation writes: Lots to learn from Fast Grants! Can we implement it in a public institutions that face a […] The post The Continuing Influence of Fast Grants...

New GPT4 prompt engineering tip: If you're tipping your GPT4, it's better to promise to tip it $20 or $100,000+; those amounts will give the longest answers pic.twitter.com/2f5fmtRuIM — Denis Shiryaev 💙💛 (@literallydenis) January 31, 2024 The post The GPT-4 imaginary lie-based supply curve appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsIn reply to AW. Cultural? or just practical. The so-called ... by Trina HalppeIs...

It is very long, very detailed, and very good.  Interesting throughout!  Excerpt: Dealing with the third conversation is harder. There is place where I feel Tyler is misinterpreting a few statements, in ways I find extremely frustrating and that I do not see him do in other contexts, and I pause to set the record […] The post Zvi Mowshowitz covers my podcast with...

We discussed how the insights of Hayek, Keynes, Smith, and other great economists help us make sense of AI, growth, risk, human nature, anarchy, central planning, and much more. Dwarkesh is one of the very best interviewers around, here are the links.  If Twitter is blocked to you, here is the transcript, here is Spotify, […] The post My new podcast with Dwarkesh Patel...

…we can expect to see in the 2020s that we did not see in the 2010s: the possibility of ubiquitous participation by AIs. AIs are willing to work for less than $1 per hour, and have the knowledge of an encyclopedia – and if that’s not enough, they can even be integrated with real-time web search […] The post Vitalik on AI and crypto appeared...

That is the focus of my latest Bloomberg column, 2x the normal length.  I cannot cover all the points, but here is one excerpt: The larger theme is becoming evident: AI will radically disrupt power relations in society. AI may severely limit, for instance, the status and earnings of the so-called “wordcel” class. It will […] The post What are the actual dangers of...

As she did on the LBRY case (n.b. I was a LBRY advisor), SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce released a statement about the failings of the SEC with regards to the recently approved Bitcoin spot ETPs. It’s rare to read something this brutal coming from the inside. We squandered a decade of opportunities to do our […] The post Hester Peirce on the SEC appeared...

Maybe so: We administer a Turing Test to AI Chatbots. We examine how Chatbots behave in a suite of classic behavioral games that are designed to elicit characteristics such as trust, fairness, risk-aversion, cooperation, \textit{etc.}, as well as how they respond to a traditional Big-5 psychological survey that measures personality traits. ChatGPT-4 exhibits behavioral and […] The post Are chatbots better than we are?...

That was the menu from Tal Cual!, in Buenos Aires, the first Paraguayan food I have had.  I showed GPT-4 that menu and asked why there were no posted prices on it.  It responded that the restaurant wanted to economize on the cost of price changes, and afterwards mentioned a fixed price menu as an […] The post My first Paraguayan restaurant, and a...