Following the science? — the show so far

By Tyler Cowen

As the pace of recovery quickens, and most balance sheets continue to look decent, it seems increasingly obvious that $1.9 trillion is too much to spend.  We are spending at least $1 trillion too much, with very little investment to show for it, and $1 trillion is a lot of money.  Heaven forbid they should make part of the stimulus dependent on future macroeconomic variables, which is what science would suggest.

New CDC school opening guidelines fail to “follow the science.” School reopening is a big, big issue. Overall the blue states are not doing well on it, and the Biden administration is hurting rather than helping.

Vaccine distribution is doing better, with 2.4 million doses distributed per day by the end of this last week.  I am less sure how much that is above the previous trajectory.  At least originally, Biden was boasting of aspiring to doing one million doses a day, so the presidential grasp of detail is not what pushed us over the edge here.

Those are arguably the three most important issues at the moment, and the overall performance level is not great.

The AstraZeneca vaccine still is not approved, with no sign of an FDA budge in sight.  Canada approved it last week, so now there are more than fifteen nations on board.  The new data on its performance are quite strong, even for a single dose.

Biden will be appointing an FDA head, but I haven’t heard talk of reform in spite of major and ongoing failures, and some in process reforms in the UK.  Is it even permissible to raise the topic of “the deregulations we need”?

The $15 minimum wage idea seems doomed to fail, in any case it was obviously worse than an “indexed by state” approach, even if you hold the Dube-ous view of minimum wage economics.

There is also this:

The emergency facility — a vestige of the Trump administration that was open for only a month in summer 2019 — is being reactivated to hold up to 700 children ages 13 to 17.

By the way, arrests of unaccompanied children at the border are up 50% this month (WSJ).  So this problem isn’t going away.  Is science being used to structure the incentives properly for these migrants?

That issue aside, immigration is the one policy area where there has been major sustained improvement, and where those improvements are likely to continue.

As far as I know, there is no immediate plan to eliminate or lower the Trump tariffs on Chinese goods.

The (non-scientific) belief in a new era of cooperation with Europe, including in opposition to China, already lies in tatters.

I don’t know if the American military should have bombed Syria, but I do know that it did and I suspect our government also does not know if it should have, not really know in the scientific sense.

I do get that the Biden administration “feels more scientific” to you, and it has the demeanor of a proper establishment, and it offers experts much higher status, and it does not encourage yahoos to storm the Capitol, for which I am very grateful.

But the rather obvious evidence here is that the scientific record is already quite poor.