'Cases vs. deaths in the Covid debates' bookmarked by ~marginalrevolution

Cases vs. deaths in the Covid debates

marginalrevolution.com

Once upon a time, there were some herd immunity theorists. They claimed that once a certain percentage of the population had been infected, the R for Covid would fall below one and the disease would become far less common and less significant. Since these analysts were especially aware of heterogeneity issues (though common in the […] The post Cases vs. deaths in the Covid debates appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

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The fragility of herd immunity

marginalrevolution.com

Trouble in the Madrid region is brewing again, even though earlier seroprevalance had clocked in at...
Trouble in the Madrid region is brewing again, even though earlier seroprevalance had clocked in at about 20 percent: Good for New York of course, here is a thread discussing the comparison, to me the conclusions seem premature. The important point in any case is that Covid-protected time periods need not last forever, and you […] The post The fragility of herd immunity appeared...
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As other cities go into lockdown, why isn’t London having a second wave?

theguardian.com

Experts suggest the capital’s previous exposure, and capacity to embrace home working, may now be inhibiting...
Experts suggest the capital’s previous exposure, and capacity to embrace home working, may now be inhibiting the virus Coronavirus – latest updatesSee all our coronavirus coverageIt is a question that puzzles both those on the front line fighting Covid 19 and the experts developing strategies to combat its next move: why has London not seen a second flare-up when other parts of the UK...
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Dark matter, second waves and epidemiological modelling

marginalrevolution.com

Here is a new paper from Karl Friston, Anthony Costello, and Deenan Pillay: Background Recent reports based on conventional SEIR...
Here is a new paper from Karl Friston, Anthony Costello, and Deenan Pillay: Background Recent reports based on conventional SEIR models suggest that the next wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in the UK could overwhelm health services, with fatalities that far exceed the first wave. These models suggest non-pharmaceutical interventions would have limited impact without intermittent national lockdowns and […] The post Dark matter, second waves and epidemiological...
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