Four-in-five panelists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics see at least a 25% chance of the coronavirus fueling a second economic downturn, or "double-dip" recession. Nearly two-thirds of respondents view the US as still in a recession, and almost half of panelists don't expect US GDP to completely rebound until at least the second half of 2022, according to NABE. Many respondents raised concerns about the level of fiscal relief passed by Congress. One-quarter of panelists called the body's fiscal response "inadequate," and only 37% deemed it "adequate. Panelists were far more positive toward the Federal Reserve's efforts, with more than three-quarters of respondents calling the central bank's policies "about right." Visit Business Insider's homepage for more stories.
A majority of economists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics see the coronavirus recession potentially worsening before getting better. Nearly two-thirds of respondents for the association's August survey see the US economy still mired in a recession. Almost half of the panelists don't see US gross domestic product completely rebounding until at least the second half of 2022. Four-in-five participants see at least a 25% chance of a "double-dip" recession, NABE added. The second wave of virus cases and lockdown measures bit into recovery hopes throughout the summer. While infection rates recently started to trend lower, fallout is set to linger. Only 18% of respondents see nonfarm payrolls recovering to February levels in 2021, and 34% don't expect such recovery to arrive before 2023. Read more: UBS analyzed how 900 stocks perform on positive COVID-19 vaccine news days — and concluded that these 17 are poised to jump at least 9% on the next cycle of encouraging headlines Even if the labor market returns to its past health, a large portion of businesses won't make it out of the downturn. The median of panelists' expectations sees 40% of business closures being permanent, according to NABE. The gloomy outlook, reflecting respondents' answers between July 30 and August 10, arrived as Congress stood frozen in stimulus negotiations. Economists have called for billions in fresh aid to keep businesses afloat and maintain expanded unemployment benefits. One in four panelists deemed Congress' fiscal response to the pandemic "insufficient," and 37% labeled it "adequate." Only 11% called the stimulus "excessive," according to NABE. Respondents were far more positive toward the Federal Reserve and its monetary policy effort. More than three-quarters of panelists said the Fed's actions were "about right," while only 2% deemed them "too restrictive." The majority of respondents expect the central bank's near-zero rates to last through 2021, and 24% see the rates staying put until at least 2023. Read more: Stocks are making their most extreme moves in 20 years — and one quant expert warns the COVID-19 crash was a preview of more 'wild swings' to comeJoin the conversation about this story » NOW WATCH: 7 secrets about Washington, DC landmarks you probably didn't know
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