The White House projects that shutting down the US to stop the coronavirus could save 2 million lives
As many as 2.2 million people in the US are predicted to die from COVID-19 without mitigation, according to an analysis that the White House is using to guide its response, which was released Tuesday. Deaths tolls will be curbed dramatically if the shutdown continues. The White House is recommending that social distancing continue until at least April 30. But as many as 240,000 people are still predicted to die, even with shutdowns and stay-at-home orders. President Donald Trump previously said he wanted to reopen parts of the economy by Easter, but the trove of data about deaths from the coronavirus made him change course. Visit Business Insider's homepage for more stories.
As many as 2 million lives could be saved if the US stays on course with its shutdown, according to a model that has been guiding the White House's planning for the pandemic. Dr. Deborah Birx, who is leading the Trump administration's efforts against the coronavirus pandemic, presented the data during a White House press briefing on Tuesday. The presentation showed that between 1.5 million and 2.2 million people would die without mitigation. With actions to stop the virus' spread, US deaths are projected to number between 100,000 and 240,000 people, which Birx said was "still way too much." Mitigation steps include people washing their hands and not touching their faces, staying in their homes, gathering only in groups of fewer than 10 people, and limiting travel. "It's very much focused on the next two weeks and the stark reality of what this virus will do as it moves through communities," Birx said as she presented the data to reporters. She has used the model to help convince President Donald Trump to support the continued shutdown, The New York Times reported. 'Mitigation is going to be doing the trick for us' Birx then provided data from different states, saying it provided "great hope about what is possible." Washington state and California, in particular, appear to have the virus under control through widespread testing and containment measures. "We are really convinced that mitigation is going to be doing the trick for us," Dr. Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said during the presentation. "What you have is increase in new cases at a certain rate. When the increase in cases begin to level off, the secondary effect is less hospitalizations, the next effect is less intensive care, and the next effect is less deaths." Fauci stressed that the numbers were predictions that may not necessarily come to pass. "This is a number that we need to anticipate, but we don't necessarily have to accept it as being inevitable," he said. "We can influence this to varying degrees." Staying shut down past Easter Trump initially wanted to open parts of the US by Easter, fearing the shutdowns and stay-at-home orders were causing severe damage to the economy. But the president's sentiments clashed with public-health officials, who used the model presented Tuesday to persuade him to change course. Trump has since walked back the Easter deadline, and his administration is now calling for social distancing until at least April 30. "This is the time for all Americans to come together and do our part," Trump said at Tuesday's press briefing ahead of the presentation. Birx said the data she presented that projected as many as 240,000 people could die was assembled by "five or six international and domestic modelers," citing Harvard University, Columbia University, Northeastern University, and Imperial College London. "It was their model that created the ability to see what these mitigations could do — how steeply they could depress the curve," Birx said. The US has the biggest coronavirus outbreak Another part of the data came from a model designed by researchers at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington. The analysis uses data from states, hospital groups, other countries, and the World Health Organization. It assumes that state and local officials will impose stay-at-home orders through May, including limiting travel, shuttering schools, and closing what they deem to be nonessential businesses. It says deaths will rise in states that don't take at least three of these steps. The US has the highest known number of coronavirus cases, with at least 175,000 people infected and at least 3,170 deaths. Other researchers have varying predictions that range from 200,000 to 2.2 million deaths in the US by the end of the year. Do you have a personal experience with the coronavirus you'd like to share? Or a tip on how your town or community is handling the pandemic? Please email email@example.com and tell us your story. And get the latest coronavirus analysis and research from Business Insider Intelligence on how COVID-19 is impacting businesses.Join the conversation about this story » NOW WATCH: What's really going on inside an insect-munching venus flytrap
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New York Times says it has obtained document that suggests administration expects daily death toll to...New York Times says it has obtained document that suggests administration expects daily death toll to rise throughout MayCoronavirus – latest US updatesCoronavirus – latest global updatesSee all our coronavirus coverageAs Donald Trump proclaimed success in America’s fight against the coronavirus and continued to push for the US economy to reopen, it was reported on Monday that internal projections show the administration is expecting 3,000 deaths a day by 1 June. Related: CNN's Don Lemon tells Trump to stop peddling 'crap' and 'conspiracy theories' Continue reading...
The coronavirus could kill 3,000 Americans per day by June 1, according to leaked projections from the Trump administration
An estimated 3,000 Americans could die from COVID-19 each day by June 1, according to internal...An estimated 3,000 Americans could die from COVID-19 each day by June 1, according to internal Trump administration projections that The New York Times published Monday. If 3,000 people died from the virus every day during the month of June, that would mean 90,000 people would die, which would surpass the current death toll of 68,000. About 1,750 people in the US are currently dying in the US each day, according to the report. The leaked document was based on a draft model a researcher presented to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the Washington Post reported. Visit Business Insider's homepage for more stories. COVID-19 deaths could spike this month as lockdowns lift, according to a leaked, internal, draft projection from the Trump administration that The New York Times and Washington Post published Monday. The leaked document estimates 3,000 people could die from the coronavirus each day in the US by June 1. If that projection were to hold throughout June, it could mean 90,000 people could die next month. Justin Lessler, an epidemiologist at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, drafted the model and presented it to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the Post reported. The leaked document says it's a CDC "Prevention Situation Update" and has logos from the Department of Health and Human Services and the Federal Emergency Management Agency. But Lessler told the Post that the document was based on his unfinished modeling. "I had no role in the process by which that was presented and shown. This data was presented as an FYI to CDC … it was not in any way intended to be a forecast," he said. The leaked document also projects about 200,000 people could be infected each day with the virus — up from 30,000 per day presently — by the beginning of June. On Sunday, the US reported 1,719 new deaths from COVID-19, according to the CDC. While 3,000 new deaths per day by June 1 is the middle estimate in the leaked document, the draft model ranges from 750 to 15,000 deaths per day by then. By May 15, it projects 250 to 10,000 deaths per day, with 1,000 as the middle estimate. White House deputy press secretary Judd Deere said the leaked report hasn't been vetted by multiple agencies and wasn't a White House document. "This data is not reflective of any of the modeling done by the task force or data that the task force has analyzed," he said. But Lessler told the Post that if states end their lockdowns too soon, the projections in the document are possible. DataTicker - Covid 19 Global and US Death projections are increasing as states lift their lockdowns Major cities like New York, Chicago, Los Angeles have experienced the largest outbreaks in the US so far, according to Johns Hopkins University. In other areas of the country, outbreaks have been reported among incarcerated populations and at meat processing plants. More than 1.1 million people have been diagnosed with COVID-19 in the US, and at least 68,285 have died from the disease, according to Johns Hopkins. The grim, leaked projections come as state leaders across the US begin to relax social distancing regulations that were put in place in order to reduce the transmission of the disease caused by the novel coronavirus. On Friday, Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp relaxed the state's stay-at-home order for most residents — and 1,000 new people in the state were diagnosed with the virus that day. Over half of US states plan to relax stay-at-home orders this week, but the vast majority of them do not yet have adequate testing resources experts say are needed to safely do so, the Associated Press reported Saturday. Health experts and leaders have been warning for months of a second wave of COVID-19 cases and deaths if social distancing measures are ended prematurely. On Sunday, President Donald Trump predicted the virus would kill as many as 100,000 Americans, an increase from the 60,000 he projected it would kill a few weeks ago. "Look, we're going to lose anywhere from 75, 80 to 100,000 people," he said during a Fox News town hall. "That's a horrible thing. We shouldn't lose one person out of this." The president also on Sunday said there could be a vaccine for the novel coronavirus by the end of the year, though experts have estimated the search for an effective treatment could last 18 months. Experts have also warned that a rushed vaccine could come with risks, including the potential to make the disease worse in infected individuals. But until we have a vaccine or viable treatment for the disease, experts maintain that social distancing and widespread testing are the best ways to contain outbreaks.Join the conversation about this story » NOW WATCH: Why COVID-19 death predictions will always be wrong
White House medic Deborah Birx said coronavirus deaths will 'dramatically' decrease by the end of May, but social distancing will go on for much longer
Deborah Birx, the White House coronavirus task force coordinator, told Fox News on Saturday that the...Deborah Birx, the White House coronavirus task force coordinator, told Fox News on Saturday that the US will see a dramatic decrease in coronavirus hospitalizations and deaths by the end of May. But social distancing will have to continue "through the summer," Birx told NBC News on Sunday. Several states have begun to ease social distancing measures, but public-health experts fear that cases could rebound as a result. Visit Business Insider's homepage for more stories. White House coronavirus task force coordinator Deborah Birx has a rough timeline for how the pandemic will play out in the US over the next several months. The number of coronavirus hospitalizations, ICU patients, and deaths "will be dramatically decreased by the end of May," Birx said in an interview with Fox News on Saturday. The number of cases, she added, will likely continue to rise. "As we expand testing more and more into the greater community with much less symptoms, we'll see additional cases," Birx said. She added that increased testing could help identify mild or asymptomatic cases "currently circulating in the community." But in an interview with NBC News on Sunday, Birx said social distancing would need to continue for several more months. "Social distancing will be with us through the summer to really ensure that we protect one another as we move through these phases," Birx said. Her comments follow the decision of several states to ease social distancing and stay-at-home restrictions. Georgia allowed certain non-essential businesses — including gyms, hair salons, and tattoo parlors — to reopen on Friday. That same day, Oklahoma reopened state parks and outdoor recreation areas, and allowed personal care businesses to resume appointments. Alaska also reopened retail businesses and dine-in services restaurants on Friday, under the proviso that those businesses operate at 25% capacity. Some public-health experts fear that easing restrictions too soon could allow cases to rebound. Health experts predict the US will see cases in the fall The end of the coronavirus pandemic will most likely be tied to the development of a vaccine — a process that could take about 18 months. On Wednesday, Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said he was "convinced" the US will see coronavirus cases in the fall. In the meantime, public-health experts agree that social distancing is key to controlling the outbreak. "Every model shows that if we open things up now, we will just have a rebound," Elizabeth Halloran, a biostatistician at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center and University of Washington, told Business Insider on April 13. Vice President Mike Pence told Fox News on Friday that the US "will largely have this coronavirus epidemic behind us" by Memorial Day weekend. A day earlier, he gave a similar timeline to radio host Rush Limbaugh. "I truly do believe if current trend lines hold, that by early June, we could largely have this coronavirus epidemic behind us, and begin to see our nation open back up and go back to work," Pence told Limbaugh. "If some of those early studies hold out, there will be an awful lot of Americans in the fall and in the winter of next year that actually enjoy a degree of immunity from the coronavirus. That will be a bulwark against this." On Sunday, Birx told NBC News that the vice president was referring to models based on data from Detroit and Louisiana. But Halloran said it's unlikely that most Americans will be immune to the virus before a vaccine becomes available. "If I had to put my nickel on it, we don't have very high herd immunity in this population currently," she said. "We hope that a vaccine could induce an immunity that will at least keep people from dying."Join the conversation about this story » NOW WATCH: How location data can help track and stop the spread of COVID-19